Reenacting Munetaka Murakami’s scenario? Tatsuya Imai’s MLB contract may shrink or become short-term

Seibu Lions’ ace pitcher Tatsuya Imai has experienced a notable shift in his MLB bidding process. While he was once favored to land a lucrative long-term contract totaling $190 million, the market enthusiasm has visibly declined as the negotiation cutoff (7 AM Beijing time, January 3, 2026) nears. Recent reports indicate that the two previously most aggressive contenders—the New York Yankees and Chicago Cubs—may both withdraw from the competition.

According to Tim Britton of The Athletic, the current contract expectation for Tatsuya Imai is around 8 years and $190 million. However, Cubs reporter Sahadev Sharma firmly stated that the Cubs “will definitely not match that price.” Sharma explained that although Imai throws a powerful fastball reaching speeds of 99 mph, MLB teams generally remain cautious about how Japanese pitchers will perform after transitioning to the U.S. league. “Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s performance exceeded many expectations, but that kind of elite output is an exception, and the Cubs won’t take such a large financial risk lightly.”

The New York Yankees, initially seen as the most likely team to sign Imai, are also facing a bleak outlook. Jack Curry of YES Network asserted that there is currently “no substantive progress or contact” between the Yankees and Imai’s camp. Local New York media suggest that the Yankees’ starting rotation already includes Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón, and last year’s ace left-hander Max Fried, leaving little salary cap space. Unless Imai’s side is willing to lower their asking price, the Yankees lack sufficient motivation to offer a large long-term contract.

At present, the Philadelphia Phillies are considered a potential dark horse destination. However, MLB scouts remain divided on Imai’s ability: some believe he has the potential to be one of the team’s top two starters, while others doubt he is more than a middle-to-back-end rotation pitcher. This uncertainty in evaluation has caused the negotiation process to stall.

Given that Japanese slugger Munetaka Murakami also ended up signing a short-term deal with the Chicago White Sox—two years for $34 million—after initially demanding a high price (estimated at 8 years, $180 million), experts believe Imai is very likely to face a similar situation. If market demand continues to weaken, Imai may have to abandon hopes for an eight-year contract and instead pursue a shorter deal of two to three years, aiming to prove himself in MLB first and then seek better terms when re-entering free agency.

In the recently concluded 2025 season, Tatsuya Imai started 24 games, achieving a 10-5 record with an outstanding 1.92 ERA. Over 163.2 innings pitched, he struck out 178 batters and is recognized as one of the most dominant pitchers currently in Japanese professional baseball. With the bidding window about to close, the coming days will be critical in determining whether he successfully joins MLB and under what contract terms.