Scubal Trade Market Update: Focus Shifts Ahead of Arbitration Hearing

Tarik Skubal and the Detroit Tigers became the center of attention last week after failing to agree on a contract for the 2026 season. The wide disparity in arbitration salary figures submitted by both sides has brought renewed focus to the “Skubal trade” rumors that circulated early in the offseason. Could these recent events lead the Tigers to rethink trading this two-time AL Cy Young Award winner?

“I don’t believe this changes much,” said an American League executive. “If they lose in arbitration, it might affect some financial flexibility, but that alone is unlikely to trigger any moves.”

Skubal is entering the final year of team control and will become a free agent after the season. The 29-year-old left-hander just secured back-to-back AL Cy Young Awards and is expected to sign a historic, massive contract this offseason. The current record for total pitcher contract value is held by Yusei Kikuchi (Dodgers, 12 years, $325 million, averaging $27.1 million per year), while the highest average annual salary belongs to Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, who signed short-term deals with the Mets in 2022-23 at $43.3 million per year. Zack Wheeler is the only other pitcher with an average annual salary above $40 million (a three-year, $126 million extension with the Phillies starting in 2025).

Among long-term contracts exceeding five years, the highest average annual salary belongs to Gerrit Cole, who signed a nine-year, $324 million deal with the Yankees in December 2019 (averaging $36 million per year). As the standout free agent after this season, Skubal is very likely to surpass this benchmark.

Skubal submitted a record arbitration figure of $32 million, while the Tigers offered $19 million. Trading Skubal before the arbitration hearing (scheduled between January 26 and February 13, US time) will be challenging, as most teams want clarity on the 2026 salary commitment before acquiring the ace.

“I think teams will want him to go through arbitration first, see the salary number, and then push for a trade,” said a National League executive. Another American League executive added, “Given the risk of a $32 million salary, some teams might not be able to afford it, but most should have room for around $20 million. Trading before the hearing would be awkward because the new team would have to take the player into arbitration.”

There is precedent for such trades in recent years, notably involving the Dodgers, who are frequently linked to star rumors. In February 2020, they acquired Mookie Betts in the final year before he became a free agent. Betts had just agreed to a $27 million deal with the Red Sox weeks before the trade and signed a 12-year, $365 million extension with the Dodgers in July, securing his services before he hit free agency.

Unlike Skubal, Betts’ agent was not Scott Boras—an agent who rarely negotiates massive extensions for clients close to free agency. Given the slim chances of an extension, the Tigers have three options for Skubal:

1. Retain him, play through the 2026 season, and then attempt to bid on him in free agency. In this case, the team can make a qualifying offer, and if he signs elsewhere, they receive draft pick compensation.

2. Trade him before the season starts, allowing the acquiring team to make a qualifying offer after the season and receive draft compensation when he departs.

3. Trade him before the summer trade deadline (assuming the team is out of contention), when contending teams might pay a premium despite not being able to make a qualifying offer.

Although Skubal’s exact free agent demands are unknown, the Tigers’ management likely has a sense of whether they can re-sign him. If they doubt retaining him, trading for a significant return of prospects or ready players (rather than draft compensation) would be a sensible move.

A pre-season trade could settle the situation but would undoubtedly weaken the Tigers’ bid for a third consecutive playoff appearance. Compared to the trade deadline—when only contenders would pay a premium for a couple of months of Skubal’s services—a pre-season trade opens the door to a broader pool of potential suitors.

Of course, waiting until summer to trade carries risks (aside from injury), especially if the Tigers remain in playoff contention. This will put baseball operations president Scott Harris in a tough spot: whether to push for the playoffs or maximize Skubal’s trade value.

The arbitration salary exchange may add new twists to Skubal’s story, but the consensus in the industry is that Detroit will hold onto their ace for now and reassess as the season progresses. “I think this uncertainty actually lowers the chances they trade him,” summarized a National League executive.