ESPN predicts Western Conference standings: Thunder lead with 64 wins, Rockets follow with 54, Clippers and Lakers both at 50 wins

On August 28th Beijing time, the well-known American outlet ESPN made predictions for the new season’s Western Conference standings, expecting the defending champion Thunder to be the sole team with 60 or more wins. The Rockets are second with 54 wins, and both the Lakers and Clippers have 50 wins. The following are the detailed predicted records, ranks, and insights—

Championship Contenders

1. Thunder: 64 wins, 18 losses

2. Rockets: 54 wins, 28 losses

3. Nuggets: 53 wins, 29 losses

4. Timberwolves: 51 wins, 31 losses

5. Clippers: 50 wins, 32 losses

6. Lakers: 50 wins, 32 losses

Get ready—you will often hear this phrase: The Thunder are unquestionably the top favorite in the Western Conference. As the youngest NBA champion team in nearly 50 years, the Thunder boast the strongest roster continuity among all defending champions—with their entire rotation retained. Last season’s scoring leader, regular season MVP, and Finals MVP Alexander is at the early peak of his career, while key teammates Jalen Williams and Holmgren are rising stars who just signed rookie contract extensions. If the Thunder aim for the 70-win milestone this season, it would be entirely unsurprising.

The Rockets were last season’s “dark horse,” surging to second place in the West but falling in the first playoff round. During the offseason, they addressed their biggest weakness (lack of a clutch go-to player) by acquiring future Hall of Famer Durant via trade, without compromising their long-term championship prospects.

The Nuggets also filled a clear roster gap—trading away small forward Michael Porter Jr. and a 2032 first-round pick to acquire Cameron Johnson, a player expected to upgrade their small forward spot, thus freeing salary cap space to strengthen their bench depth. Last season, the Nuggets pushed the Thunder to a Game 7 in the Western Conference semifinals; this year, they are determined to help three-time MVP Jokic win another title.

The Lakers might be the most talked-about team in the West: they are entering a “Doncic era” transition, while NBA all-time scoring leader LeBron James remains on the roster and continues to command the spotlight.

Play-In Contenders

7. Warriors: 48 wins, 34 losses

8. Mavericks: 44 wins, 38 losses

9. Spurs: 44 wins, 38 losses

10. Grizzlies: 42 wins, 40 losses

Competition among Western Conference title contenders is extremely fierce, and some teams with championship potential will inevitably fall into the play-in tier, forced to play 1-2 extra “win-or-go-home” games to secure playoff spots. This is especially challenging for older core teams like the Warriors and Mavericks—they may need to sprint for rankings in the final month of the regular season and won’t enjoy the rest week before playoffs that top teams get.

However, two teams always emerge from the play-in. Last April, the Warriors entered the playoffs as the 7th seed and upset the 2nd-seeded Rockets in the first round. If Curry, Butler, and Green stay healthy, the top two Western teams will likely prefer to avoid facing a Warriors team rising from 7th or 8th seed in the first round. The Mavericks are similar—if Irving recovers in time from his ACL injury, they also have the potential to disrupt.

The other two teams in the play-in tier—the Spurs and Grizzlies—show very different trends. The Spurs are in their third rebuilding year around Wembanyama: in his first two seasons, the Spurs won 22 and 34 games respectively; our prediction shows they will make a bigger leap this season, possibly reaching the 40-win range. In contrast, the Grizzlies traded one of their core players, Bane, during the offseason for draft picks—this move may signal the team is ready to enter a “performance adjustment period.”

Bottom Five Teams

11. Trail Blazers: 39 wins, 43 losses

12. Kings: 37 wins, 45 losses

13. Suns: 30 wins, 52 losses

14. Pelicans: 26 wins, 56 losses

15. Jazz: 19 wins, 63 losses

The Trail Blazers are about to get a new owner, and rookie Yang Hansheng shows great potential—the team is moving in the right direction. Their outlook leans more toward “long-term improvement” rather than an “immediate breakout” this season. The overall Western strength continues to rise, and with Lillard missing the entire season, despite having young players like Deni Avdija and Saben Lee, plus promising rookie Kessler to develop, they will still rely on 2023 third overall pick Scoot Henderson to fulfill his talent if they want to compete for a play-in or playoff spot.

The Kings will start a full season under new head coach Christie, who will try to maximize the talents of Zach LaVine, Sabonis, and DeRozan, with Schroder running the point guard duties.

With Durant joining the Rockets and Beal moving to the Clippers, the Suns are beginning a rebuild centered around Booker and several big men.

The Pelicans brought in Poole and Fils and still have Zion—but can Zion stay healthy?

The last of the bottom five—the Jazz—continue their “endless rebuild” mode. Despite adding rookie Ace Bailey, the Jazz are expected to remain firmly at the bottom of the Western Conference this season.