Preview of the EuroBasket Round of 16: Jokic vs. Markkanen, Valančiūnas vs. Porziņģis

On September 6th Beijing time, the EuroBasket Round of 16 kicks off, featuring four elimination games on the opening day. Which four teams will advance to the last eight first? Jokic battles Markkanen, and Valančiūnas clashes with Porziņģis.

September 6th, 17:00: Turkey vs. Sweden

During the group stage, Turkey defeated Latvia, Estonia, Portugal, and the Czech Republic, even overcoming the strongest opponent Serbia, finishing undefeated with a 5-0 record to reach the Round of 16. On their path to the semifinals, they will avoid facing other group winners. Against Sweden, Şengün aims for a sixth consecutive win.

Şengün nearly achieved a triple-double in one game; in his direct matchup with Jokic, he recorded 28 points, 13 rebounds, and 8 assists. Larkin scored 23 points against Serbia; Osman delivered his best performance since returning to Europe from the NBA a year ago. This Turkish squad’s depth has clearly exceeded all expectations set before the tournament.

In the group stage, Sweden only managed a win over Great Britain, losing to Germany, Finland, Montenegro, and Lithuania. Despite finishing with a 1-4 record, they were fortunate to qualify as the fourth in their group for the Round of 16. Larsson is Sweden’s biggest threat, averaging 19.8 points per game, living up to expectations; Bilgande also performed notably. However, even if all Swedish players perform at their best, considering Turkey’s strength, victory seems unlikely.

In their last four encounters, Turkey has won three times. Sweden’s sole victory came during the 2020 EuroBasket qualifiers, when they triumphed 87-80 over Turkey; their most recent meeting was at the Olympic qualifiers, where Turkey convincingly won 105-84 over Sweden.

September 6th, 20:15: Germany vs. Portugal

Based on current performances, Germany is undoubtedly the favorite to win the championship—they aim to add a European title to their world champion status. The team’s preparation and cohesion are evident: despite head coach Montbrun’s unexpected hospitalization before the tournament causing him to miss the group stage, the team’s performance remained unaffected. Latest updates indicate Montbrun is expected to return for the Round of 16. During his absence, assistant coach Ibrahim stepped up and delivered excellent leadership.

Germany went undefeated in five group matches, dominating opponents with powerful offense that left them helpless. In four out of five games, Germany scored over 100 points; the only exception was against Finland, not due to offensive struggles but because the outcome was decided early, so full pressure wasn’t necessary. Wagner and Schröder are unquestionably the core of this German team, delivering nearly unstoppable performances. At present, Germany appears to have no weaknesses.

On the other side, Portugal is experiencing the most successful summer in their basketball history. Portugal has rarely qualified for the EuroBasket main event (this is their fourth appearance), and advancing to the knockout stage is a historic first for them.

One of Portugal’s biggest strengths is their aggressive and well-defined defensive system, with each player having clear defensive responsibilities. However, objectively, their roster depth is insufficient to sustain competitiveness at the highest level over time. Facing an offensively strong team like Germany, Portugal will find it extremely challenging to keep up.

This match marks the first official competitive encounter between these two national teams.

September 6th, 23:30: Lithuania vs. Latvia

Lithuania performed steadily in the group stage, finishing second with a 4-1 record. Their only loss was to the strong German team; they defeated Great Britain, Montenegro, Finland, and Sweden. Unfortunately, their key guard Jokubaitis suffered a severe knee injury and will miss the knockout rounds. He led the group stage in assists, averaging 8.5 per game. Other Lithuanian players must step up to fill the void left by Jokubaitis’ absence.

Latvia has improved as the tournament progressed. They qualified as third in Group A, losing to Turkey and Serbia but winning against Estonia, Portugal, and the Czech Republic.

Latvia’s most recent victory was a dominant 109-75 win over the Czech Republic. The Bertans brothers each scored 20 points, and Porziņģis contributed 16 points in just 19 minutes.

The duel between Valančiūnas and Porziņģis will be crucial for the game’s outcome. In official competitions, these two teams have met five times, with Lithuania holding a slight 3-2 advantage. However, their latest encounter was at the 2023 Basketball World Cup, where Latvia crushed Lithuania 98-63.

September 7th, 02:45: Serbia vs. Finland

Serbia entered the tournament as the clear favorite for the EuroBasket gold, but the knockout phase has brought significant changes. The main issue is Bogdan’s injury, sidelining him for the remainder of the tournament, and Avramović’s foot discomfort after the loss to Turkey casts doubt on his readiness for the Round of 16. Additionally, Serbia’s group stage performance was inconsistent—only against Estonia did they maintain top-level focus, execution, and intensity for the full 40 minutes; in other matches, lapses in concentration occurred.

Despite these challenges, Serbia still possesses the strength to advance. As long as Jokic is on the roster, the team can realistically defeat any opponent.

Finland won three of five group games, finishing third in their group. They narrowly defeated Sweden in their opener, then convincingly beat Great Britain and Montenegro, but clearly struggled against Lithuania and Germany. Now, their first knockout opponent is Serbia, who hold advantages in nearly every key basketball metric.

For Finland, Markkanen is the sole hope and the team’s core. He has already demonstrated his ability to make history in this tournament, once scoring over 40 points in a single game. However, Serbia will undoubtedly focus their defense entirely on this Jazz star’s offense. This means Finland’s other starters will get many open shots, and their ability to capitalize on these opportunities will determine how long the team can stay competitive in the match.

The performance duel between Jokic and Markkanen will influence the game’s flow. In official matches, Serbia holds a 7-game winning streak over Finland, with an all-time head-to-head record of 7-1 in favor of Serbia.