LeBron James retirement announcement probability at 52%? US media skeptical of repeated hype: no one will believe it when the real decision comes

On October 7th Beijing time, LeBron James unexpectedly posted on social media: "The decision of all decisions, October 7th, 12 PM Eastern Time (midnight Beijing time on October 8th)." Following this, the top US sports prediction platform ProphetX assessed a 52% probability that James will declare his retirement tomorrow. Well-known US media CBS analyzed James’ teaser and questioned the Lakers superstar’s multiple retirement-related hype attempts, suggesting that when the real decision comes, few will believe it. Below is CBS’s analysis—

On July 8, 2010, when LeBron James declared, "I’m taking my talents to South Beach to join the Miami Heat," the sports world was shaken. The TV special titled “The Decision” became a pivotal moment in James’s career—he faced heavy criticism for leaving the Cleveland Cavaliers to form the “Big Three” with Wade and Bosh in Miami. Over the past 25 years, James’s “decision” remains one of the most significant moments in sports history, and now on October 7th, it seems he is about to make another “decision.”

James posted a 9-second video on social media showing him walking to an empty seat and sitting down opposite a stranger already there. The video’s style perfectly mimics the 2010 “The Decision” vibe, even his shirt closely resembles the one he wore when announcing his departure from Cleveland. The four-time champion captioned the video: “The crucial choice of all choices. October 7th, 12 PM Eastern Time. #SecondDecision.”

Naturally, everyone is speculating whether the NBA’s all-time leading scorer is about to announce his retirement. The atmosphere certainly matches James’s signature dramatic style, but it could also be something entirely different. Before this highly anticipated announcement, let’s analyze three possible things James might reveal on October 7th.

1. Imminent retirement

This is the news everyone is waiting for. James has kept his retirement plans tightly under wraps, despite nearly daily questions. The NBA icon has never given a clear hint. However, during media day, he stated he would not wait until his youngest son Bryce James enters the league to retire. He also playfully mentioned he might skip media day next season, hinting this season could truly be his “final dance.”

Announcing retirement in the style of a “second decision” would be a neat full circle for James, but releasing it via social media seems mismatched with the significance of the news. Although it looks like a major announcement from a promotional perspective, it lacks the grand ceremony that accompanied James’s previous major basketball decisions.

In 2010, there was the TV special “The Decision”; in 2014, when he decided to return to Cleveland, he announced it on the cover of Sports Illustrated with the bold headline “I’m coming home,” accompanied by an open letter explaining why he left Miami after winning championships; in 2018, his move to the Lakers, though less flashy, still followed Michael Jordan’s example by issuing a press release through his agency.

James might use this announcement to tell the world that the 2025-26 season will be his last, but the way it’s released feels off. Dropping it suddenly at midday without a big buildup, TV special, or even a podcast episode seems too understated and lacks impact.

2. A clever (or not so clever) advertisement

First, let’s analyze why October 7th was chosen for this announcement. With two weeks until the regular season starts, the day is Amazon Prime Day (James previously filmed ads for the company), and more importantly, it’s “National Taco Day.” Below, we explore what events this announcement might be advertising.

NBA promotion: James is about to start a record-breaking 23rd NBA season, a feat unlikely to be matched anytime soon. This year also marks the NBA’s 80th anniversary, a milestone that calls for commemorating key moments in league history. Therefore, this could be a major NBA promotional campaign to build hype for the 80th season—after all, who better than James to serve as the ambassador? He has witnessed and participated in many of the league’s most memorable moments.

Amazon advertisement: On June 14, James posted an ad on social media cleverly playing on retirement rumors. In the ad, at a press conference, when asked if the retirement rumors were true and what his plans were if so, just as he was about to answer, the screen goes black with the caption: “I’m asking myself the same question...” The full ad was designed to hype Amazon Prime Day, and coincidentally, James’s October 7 announcement falls exactly on Prime Day. This is likely the latest installment in his ad series with Amazon.

Taco-related promotion: It might sound funny, but James’s love for tacos is well-known. He has posted videos on social media shouting “Taco Tuesday,” proving he really eats tacos on Tuesdays, and six years ago even tried to trademark the phrase “Taco Tuesday” (unsuccessfully). So, he might announce a taco-related advertising partnership on National Taco Day. Although this seems unlikely, given James’s vague social media post, all possibilities must be considered.

3. A new endorsement deal

If so much promotional effort and the recreation of the original “Decision” style is just to announce a new endorsement, it would be a bit disappointing. Imagine James saying, “I’m taking my talents to [a sports betting/drink/food company].” Unfortunately, the announcement tomorrow might very well be like this. If that’s the case, the planners are clever—after all, they’ve got me, hundreds of sports journalists, and millions of fans all guessing intensely about the content.

James’s recent ads and partnerships have all centered on the theme of “future retirement,” and this announcement will likely be no different. The content may reveal a new partnership with an automotive brand or an Amazon campaign, so some will surely be disappointed by the outcome.Interestingly, since his “retirement news” has been used repeatedly for advertising hype, when James truly announces retirement in the future, some people might not believe it unless there is widespread media coverage.