Trade deadline countdown! Four possible paths ahead for the Bucks: The most drastic being to trade Giannis and fully rebuild

As of January 16th Beijing time, with just three weeks remaining before the trade deadline, Giannis’s future is still undecided. ESPN detailed four possible outcomes for the Bucks and their franchise star before the deadline.

Scenario One: Stand pat and finish the 2025-26 season as is

The Bucks constructed this roster primarily to maximize the strengths of their 31-year-old star — the team stockpiled multiple three-point shooters (currently second in the league in three-point percentage) and added a versatile center who can protect the rim and stretch the floor, fully unlocking Giannis’s dominance inside the paint.

With Giannis on the court, the Bucks hold a 14-13 record, a 51.8% win rate that places them eighth in the Eastern Conference. His presence significantly boosts the team’s performance. So far this season, when Giannis plays, the Bucks score 125.9 points per 100 possessions — the highest offensive efficiency in the league. Defensively, with this former Defensive Player of the Year anchoring the team, they allow 116.4 points per 100 possessions, roughly matching the team’s overall average of 116.2 points allowed per 100 possessions (ranked 20th in the league).

Scenario Two: Make minor upgrades to address roster weaknesses

Last week, the Hawks traded Trae Young to the Washington Wizards without any draft pick exchanges involved. The Bucks’ front office has been closely monitoring this transaction.

The Bucks’ biggest advantage in this trade window is their ample salary cap flexibility — for the first time since the 2019-20 season, the team is neither over the luxury tax line nor close to any tax thresholds, enabling them to absorb a large contract with more than one year remaining.

This factor makes the Bucks attractive to other teams looking to offload long-term contracts. According to sources from both the Bucks and the league speaking to ESPN, Milwaukee could absorb contracts such as Miami’s Wiggins (who has a $30 million player option next season) or Charlotte’s Miles Bridges (earning $22.8 million in 2026-27).

Last month, ESPN also reported that the Bucks have discussed potential additions including Kings’ LaVine and Monk, as well as Trail Blazers’ Grant.

The Bucks aim to fix their biggest issue this season via trade: their offense and defense collapse whenever Giannis rests. The recent Sunday road game against the Denver Nuggets exemplified this — Milwaukee lost 104-108 despite Denver missing their star Jokic.

In the 33 minutes Giannis played, the Bucks outscored Denver by 16 points; however, during his 15 minutes off the floor, they were outscored by 20. Without Giannis, the Bucks have a poor 3-11 record this season. Their offensive efficiency plummets to 107.6 points per 100 possessions, the worst in the league, while defensively they allow 118.7 points per 100 possessions, ranking among the bottom five.

Several team insiders told ESPN that the Bucks have been active in the trade market, hoping to find a player who can elevate the team and avoid wasting Giannis’s prime years.

However, even for minor trades, the Bucks have limited assets. Eleven players on the roster earn between $2.2 million and $5.1 million annually, and the three largest tradable contracts — Turner ($25.3 million in the first year of a four-year deal), Portis ($13.5 million with a player option in 2028), and Kuzma ($21.8 million next season) — are core rotation players, while the rotation itself is already thin.

Scenario Three: Major trade to significantly reshape the roster

After the team’s heavy loss to a depleted Timberwolves squad this week, Coach Rivers explained it was the first home game following an eight-day, four-game West Coast road trip, and they would soon embark on another away stretch. He attributed the poor performance to player fatigue and sluggish legs.

However, the team’s star player disagreed with this excuse, bluntly pointing out the gap between the Bucks and the league’s elite teams.

“They play harder, smarter, and their basketball flows more selflessly — these are exactly the things we lack,” Giannis said. “These three elements are key to winning, and I’m very aware of that. But right now, we have too many areas to improve.”

“Let’s start with the basics... Can we play harder? Can we play smarter? Can we create scoring chances for teammates? Can we fight for our teammates, the team, and ourselves? If we get these right, I believe other problems will solve themselves.”

Besides their salary cap flexibility, the Bucks currently have only one tradable first-round pick — either in 2031 or 2032. They will be in a stronger position this summer to make a blockbuster trade, holding three tradable first-round picks in 2026, 2031, and 2033, allowing them to offer up to three first-rounders for a deal.

“Sometimes, the more you struggle, the deeper you get trapped,” said an Eastern Conference executive. “There may be no light ahead, only an endless abyss waiting for you.”

Scenario Four: Trade Giannis and start a full rebuild

Trading Giannis would be the most extreme option among all scenarios, but the Bucks’ management has shown no signs of considering this path so far.

“A trade of this magnitude usually requires more than three weeks of negotiation and preparation,” an Eastern Conference executive explained.

Besides the complexity of the trade itself, the market for a star of Giannis’s caliber has cooled considerably — even former All-Star Trae Young was ultimately traded for Kessler and McCollum.

“I’m really not sure which team is willing to go all-in for him right now,” said an Eastern Conference scout. “Teams want to hold onto their assets until this summer.”

But the harsh reality of this season might force the Bucks into making this tough decision.

League sources told ESPN they believe Giannis would need to exert significant pressure on the Bucks’ front office to push for a trade. However, as one league source reiterated to ESPN, Giannis highly values his status in Milwaukee and does not want to alienate the fans by requesting a trade himself.

Nonetheless, whenever asked about his future, Giannis consistently emphasizes his loyalty to the Bucks. At the same time, he always leaves room for flexibility — enough to change his mind and potentially alter the franchise’s future.