Official website predicts Spurs will eliminate Trail Blazers 4-1! Wembanyama's playoff debut, rebounding battle becomes key

On April 15 Beijing time, in the NBA play-in tournament, the Trail Blazers defeated the Suns to become the Western Conference's 7th seed, and their first-round opponent is the Spurs. The NBA official website published a preview of this series, predicting the Spurs will ultimately eliminate the Trail Blazers 4-1 and advance to the Western Conference semifinals. The following are the relevant details—

Core focus: Wembanyama's playoff debut

In his third season, Victor Wembanyama delivered a phenomenal performance—entering MVP discussions and nearly securing his first Defensive Player of the Year award.

This season he averaged: 25 points, 11.5 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 3.1 blocks, 1.0 steals, with a shooting percentage of 51.2% and a three-point percentage of 34.9%.

Advanced statistics better reflect his impact—

When Wembanyama is on the court, the Spurs' net rating per 100 possessions is +17.0 (offensive rating 120.5, defensive rating 103.6);

when he is off the court, the net rating drops sharply to +0.6 (offensive rating 114.3, defensive rating 113.7).

How will this 22-year-old superstar adapt to playoff intensity? How will this seemingly clutch player handle the pressure of a seven-game series?

Person to watch: Mitch Johnson

The last time the Spurs played in the playoffs without Gregg Popovich coaching was back in the late 1990s.

This series will rewrite that history.

After Popovich left the team due to a stroke early in the 2024-25 season, Mitch Johnson took over the helm, serving as interim head coach last season and being officially appointed this season.

His lineup decisions will be highly intriguing. Popovich remains the Spurs' president of basketball operations, and Johnson continues to receive guidance and support from this five-time championship coach—having a legendary coach with a 170-114 playoff record and 22 consecutive playoff appearances as a backing is undoubtedly a huge advantage.

Additional highlights for both teams

Spurs

Besides Wembanyama, the Spurs' young core also delivered explosive performances this season.

However, key players including Keldon Johnson, Castle, Dylan Harper, Champagnie, and Carter Bryant all have no playoff experience.

They will inevitably face tense moments, and how the team navigates through them under the leadership of veterans like Fox and Harrison Barnes will be an important subplot.

Trail Blazers

Forward Avdija delivered All-NBA caliber statistics this season:

averaging 24.2 points (a career high)

free throw percentage 80.2%

6.7 assists

shooting percentage 46.2%, 6.9 rebounds

With the support of the new ownership group led by Tom Dundon, this talented Trail Blazers team has immense potential for both the present and the future.

Key statistic: 16%

The Trail Blazers score 16% of their points from second-chance opportunities, the highest in the league.

Their offensive rebounding rate is 35.4% (4th in the league), and their second-chance points per 100 possessions is 18.1 (3rd in the league).

The Trail Blazers' primary offensive efficiency ranks near the bottom of the league; almost no team relies more on grabbing offensive rebounds to sustain scoring.

Their opponent in this round—the Spurs—is the league's top team in defensive rebounding rate (72.4%).

In three regular-season meetings where Wembanyama was absent, the Trail Blazers still grabbed 32.5% of offensive rebounds, ranking fifth among all teams facing the Spurs.

However, Wembanyama's personal defensive rebounding rate is as high as 28.5% (the highest among players meeting the minutes threshold), and once he anchors the interior, the Trail Blazers' rebounding difficulty will sharply increase.

Official website prediction: Spurs eliminate Trail Blazers 4-1

The Spurs rank top three in both offense and defense, combined with Wembanyama's absolute dominance, the series balance clearly leans in their favor.