The Mavericks drew the champion lottery, and the NBA didn't play it this time

I woke up late in the morning and didn't see the live broadcast of the lottery, and then I woke up and saw the results of the lottery, and I suspected that I was still dreaming.

The probabilities of each team drawing the top pick before the draft are as follows:

Then here are the final results of the 2025 lotto draw:

1.8% probability of the Lone Ranger getting the champion sign; The Spurs have been the lottery saint for three consecutive years, and after selecting the best rookie for two consecutive years, they have drawn another list this year; The 76ers are not too surprised to get Tanhua compared to the top two, after all, the bad swing at the end of the season is really not a face.

Then the three teams with the worst records were fourth, fifth and sixth. The Jazz, who are the bottom of the league this season, have been drawn to fifth. This should be the team that has been the bottom team for three consecutive years and finally drew the fifth pick, the Pistons in the first two years, and the Jazz this year, which shows that it is really impossible for the league to sign the top pick to the worst team.

Of course, these small probability things are not worth mentioning in front of the fact that the Lone Ranger got the champion sign. The Mavericks traded Doncic to the Lakers and got the No. 1 pick three months later, and it's hard not to connect the two.

In 2019, the Pelicans sent Bushy Eyebrows to the Lakers, and then got the No. 1 pick to Zion a few months later. It seems that as long as a team sends its star to the Lakers, it will be compensated more than enough in the draft in a few months.

The compensation mechanism cannot be said on the surface, but it certainly exists in the lotto draw. In the first year of the NBA's lottery system, there were huge conspiracy theories. That year's top pick was thought to be Patrick Ewing, the dominant center from Georgetown University.

The NBA introduced its first lottery draft that year, and all seven teams that didn't make the playoffs had an equal chance of getting the top pick. Seven envelopes with the team's names on them were shaken in a large glass bottle, and Stern pulled out the first envelope, which was the champion sign.

The first envelope that New Yorker Stern pulled out was none other than the Knicks, and this envelope had a folded corner that the others did not. This glaring bug is still considered proof of the league's manipulation of the draft. After Ewing was drafted, people said, "Basketball is back in New York."

Later, the lotto lottery system went through many reforms and eventually evolved into the complex mechanism it is today, but no matter how complex the mechanism is, there is also the possibility of human operation. Some time ago James joked;

"When the ball fell, the Cavaliers so coincidentally drew the No. 1 pick, I don't think it's just a coincidence, want to keep James on the home team? Ewing goes to the Knicks, Rose goes to the Bulls, I know the routine. ”

Today, the Mavericks have a 1.8% probability of getting the top pick, which is the fourth lowest in history, and there are even more unfavorable ahead. The lowest is a 1.52% chance for the Magic in '93, and the Bulls in 2008 and the Cavaliers in 2014 both had a 1.70% chance of winning the lottery. In addition, in 2011, the Cavaliers had a 2.80% chance of winning the top pick (this pick came from the Clippers).

When the Bulls got the No. 1 pick in '08, the skepticism was no lower than it is today, because the No. 1 pick of that year was called Derrick Rose, a kid who grew up in Chicago and returned to Chicago.

In 10 years, the Cavaliers lost James, and in 11 years, the Cavaliers drew the first pick to draft Irving; The '14 Cavaliers drew the No. 1 pick again (and even the '13 No. 1 pick was a Cavaliers), and then a few months later, James was back with the Cavaliers.

In 2011, the league vetoed the Hornets' trade to send Paul to the Lakers, and Paul went to the Clippers. In 2012, the Hornets drew the top pick and chose the thick eyebrows. At the time, the Hornets were still in league custody and later changed their name to the Pelicans.

If I were the management of the Bucks, I would call Xiao Hua right now, ask where the league wants Brother Alphabet to go, and see who the 26-year top pick is.