Things you should know before the finals begin

After more than seven months of competition, the Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers finally stood on the stage of the finals.

As the league's No. 1 player in the regular season, the Thunder won the Western Conference championship and achieved the goal set before the start of the season. And the walker standing in this position is beyond the expectations of most people. As a result, it may be the "biggest gap" in history.

ESPN's G1 win rate before the start of the Finals was over 65% for the Thunder and 34.4% for the Pacers. There are also some media that give a Finals win rate, the Thunder is as high as 85%, and the Pacers are only a pitiful 15%. Although it was the Eastern Conference championship that was underestimated all the way and then slapped in the face, such a level of prediction is enough to show that the Pacers are completely unfavored in this series.

Truth be told, the more you analyze this series, the lower the probability that the Pacers will be able to win four games against the Thunder. As the league's top player in the regular season, the Thunder won 68 wins, while the Pacers only had 50 wins, a difference of 18 wins.

The Thunder had a terrifying 12.86 points in the regular season, which set a record for the largest goal difference in the NBA. The Pacers, on the other hand, are averaging just 2.23 points per game, a difference of 10.63 points between the two sides. This is the largest margin of margin for teams in the Finals since 1971, and no team has been able to reverse a margin of more than 4.94 points in the Finals to win the championship.

In the two meetings in the regular season, the Thunder swept the Pacers. In fact, this season's Thunder swept most of the teams in the East, with a record of 29 wins and 1 loss against Eastern teams, only losing to the Cavaliers. Of course, the game lost to the Bucks in the midseason final does not count.

In the first meeting, Alexander blasted 45 points and blew up the Pacers' defense, while Haliburton only scored 4 points. In the second meeting, Alexander "converged" some only 33 points, but the Pacers lost to the Thunder by 21 points, and the Thunder bench exploded in this game.

Two games, two different ways to win, one relied on Alexander's inexplicable individual offense to decide the game, and the other relied on the Thunder's powerful roster depth to drag the Pacers to death, it is worth mentioning that Isaiah Joe, who scored 19 points in that game, couldn't even play in the Western Conference.

Both teams have the longest rotations and the best roster depth in the playoffs, and the fact that they meet at the top of the game is also a testament to a trend in contemporary basketball where roster depth is beginning to increasingly influence the outcome of a series. In the past, everyone in the playoffs was the best seven people, but now the eighth, ninth or even tenth people can also determine the outcome of the game.

As mentioned before, this series is considered the strongest spear against the strongest shield, but the thickness of this "shield" is much sharper than that of this "spear". Whether it is the regular season or the playoffs, the Thunder is the league's cliff-like defensive first.

The Thunder's defensive efficiency was 106.6 in the regular season and 104.7 in the playoffs, and the Thunder's offensive efficiency also ranked third among all teams in the playoffs, second only to the Cavaliers and Pacers.

While the Pacers are second in offensive efficiency in the playoffs (eliminating the first-place Cavaliers), their defensive efficiency is only ninth in the league, and defense has never been their strong point.

What are the strengths of walkers? High-speed counter-attacks and control errors. They have the third-best turnovers rate of any team in the playoffs, their fast-break scoring rate is third-in the league, their turnovers are second-best in the league, and their fast-break shooting percentage is first.

But to the despair of the Pacers, the Thunder are the number one in turnovers and fast-break scoring, and the Thunder's turnover-control ability is also the first among any team in the playoffs, while they are averaging a terrifying 10.8 steals per game, and they are also among the best in the league in turnovers.

For a team like the Pacers that starts from the guard, the Thunder's strong pressing ability on the guard line is almost a nightmare for them, and an interior player like Jokic can change the Thunder's defense and play with them to a tie-break.

What the Pacers are good at, the Thunder is even better at; What the Pacers are not good at, and what the Thunder live on. So in this round of the series, the so-called preview is actually not much necessary, the difference in strength between the two sides is there, just looking at the data, the Pacers have no chance of winning.

But in the basketball game, after all, it needs to be played on the spot, as well as some unexpected factors. The Pacers can match the Thunder, Topin's athleticism, McConnell's mid-range, Matherine's scoring hardware, and even Mop's outside firepower in terms of roster depth, all of which can be the X-factor of the series.

The example of "no one is optimistic about you, but you are the most competitive" has been played out more than once by the Pacers. Putting Haliburton and Alexander together, it is obvious that the two sides are not at the same level, but Haliburton's magic may also become more fierce after losing the MVP of the Eastern Conference finals.

What the Pacers need to do is to play a joint defense in the first game to pick Alexander out of the game, rather than starting to pick a joint defense after falling behind by a large margin like the Timberwolves did. The Nuggets have given a defensive template, and the Pacers should still have to set it. Of course, the Pacers can also choose to trust Nembhard's single defense in the opening game to see the effect.

When Carlisle stood on the Finals stage for the first time as a head coach, standing in front of him was the Heat's Big Three in the first year of formation, when Carlisle's Mavericks were also one-sided before the Finals began, and then that team completed a classic comeback in the Finals.

So, never jump to conclusions before the finals start. Regardless of the gap on paper, when the opening whistle for Game 1 of the Finals blows, everything has to start from scratch.