With only five days left in the LPL's third stage group matches, after more than a month of battles, the playoff outlooks for the Pinnacle and Phoenix groups are now quite evident. Following TES and BLG securing their playoff berths, IG also achieved their 8th victory by defeating FPX in revenge on the last match day. The fifth-ranked WBG currently holds a total score of 5 and a small score of -4; even if they win all three remaining games, their best record would be 8-6 with a small score of +2.

IG boasts a small score as high as 9 points. Even if they lose all their final three matches without winning a single game, their small score remains one point higher than WBG’s, making IG the third LPL team to secure a playoff spot. After IG’s qualification, only one direct slot remains in the Pinnacle group, contested by AL, WBG, and JDG. Currently, AL holds the greatest advantage, leading WBG by two points and JDG by three, needing just one more win to qualify.

The situation for WBG and JDG looks grim; these two teams are now at the mercy of AL’s performance. For WBG to qualify directly, the only scenario is winning their next three matches while AL loses two consecutively, giving WBG a one-point lead. However, if total points tie, AL still holds the small score advantage. As for JDG, their chances are purely theoretical now—they would need AL to lose twice and WBG to also be defeated to make the playoffs.

JDG has three matches left, and even if they win all, their maximum score is 7 points, with a best record of 7-7 and a small score of zero. If AL loses their next two matches without winning a single game, both teams would tie in total and small scores. But this scenario is unlikely; AL only needs to win one game to eliminate JDG. Furthermore, AL’s final match is against WE, which they are expected to win. Overall, the last direct playoff spot will most likely go to AL.

The Phoenix group’s playoff picture is also very clear now. NIP and EDG secured their Knight's Path spots early. LGD earned their qualification after defeating TT. On the last match day, LGD beat EDG, finalizing the Phoenix group rankings with NIP in first place, EDG second, and LGD third. The last playoff spot remains undecided, with UP, TT, and LNG all still having chances to qualify.

UP, currently fourth, controls their own fate. If they win their next match, they will secure a spot on the Knight's Path. If they lose, their fate depends on the results of the other two teams. TT has only 2 points and one match left; to qualify, they must win that match and hope UP loses. LNG faces a similar situation, needing to win their remaining two matches while UP and TT both lose.

It’s hard to believe that with the group stage nearly over, LNG, with a 1-7 record, still has a chance to qualify. Apart from NIP and EDG, the Phoenix group teams are extremely close in strength. The teams ranked third to sixth are very evenly matched. The team that advances to the Knight’s Path from these four will likely struggle against WBG and JDG, making an early exit in the Knight’s Path highly probable.

With the Phoenix group rankings finalized, the Knight’s Path schedule is mostly set. According to official rules, the stronger teams face the weaker ones: first-place NIP will definitely face FPX, second-place EDG will most likely meet WE, and LGD is likely to face JDG. The last qualifier—whether UP, TT, or LNG—should face WBG. Among these four matches, only the WE vs. EDG game holds significant suspense.

Conclusion:

Up to now in the LPL group stage, the gap in strength has become quite apparent. The top four teams in the Pinnacle group are likely to be the representatives at this year’s World Championship. However, since the playoffs are BO5, there could still be surprises, especially if some teams have players with limited champion pools, which could be exploited.

So, who do you think is currently the strongest team in the LPL?

Feel free to leave your thoughts and join the discussion!