Preface: The S15 season matches have officially started, and most players have been closely following the recent confrontations. The World Championship battles are extremely intense. From the current overall situation, LPL teams are on the brink of elimination. So far, only the AL team has secured a spot in the quarterfinals, while BLG and TES still need to win crucial matches to qualify. Industry experts have analyzed the current situation, suggesting that the probability of LPL teams facing T1 is very high. This could mean that only one or two LPL teams will advance to the quarterfinals, possibly repeating the S7 season disaster, where the final was contested by two LCK teams.

S15 Quarterfinals Advancement Outlook

Most players are quite familiar with this year's World Championship, especially since it is again hosted in the LPL region. Before the event, a shadow team was even formed to maximize the participating teams' training conditions. Expectations were high for redemption, but during the Swiss round, LPL teams showed many problems. First, the highly anticipated number one seed, BLG, considered a favored team, faced four rounds against European and American teams and currently holds a 1-2 record. Their next opponent is VKS, and if they perform normally, they are likely to reach a 2-2 group score.

Currently, two BO3 elimination matches remain unfinished: T1 vs. 100T and BLG vs. VKS. If nothing unexpected happens, the last Swiss round teams should be CFO, FLY, MKOI, TES, T1, and BLG. LPL commentator Huainan analyzed the upcoming matchups. If these six teams remain, T1 has a one-third chance to face TES and a one-third chance to face BLG or MKOI. This means T1 has a two-thirds chance to meet an LPL team, and the two LPL teams have an equal chance of facing each other. Judging by current form, if drawn, T1 is very likely to eliminate them.

Next is BLG, which besides a one-third chance of meeting T1, has a 16.7% chance each to face TES, FLY, MKOI, or CFO. From this data, the probability of an internal LPL clash is relatively low. Similarly, TES and BLG have equal chances. Honestly, this draw is a concern for many. Previously, it was believed that LPL internal matches might hurt the region's results, but given BLG and TES's current condition, an internal match might be the best option to ensure at least one LPL team advances to the quarterfinals. However, the chance for this internal match is only one-sixth, making it unlikely.

If T1 draws an LPL team, and the other LPL team faces CFO, it’s possible that AL will be the only LPL team in the quarterfinals this year. If this happens, it would be devastating for LPL fans. In S7, multiple top teams like WE and RNG reached the semifinals, but this year, some can't even get past the Swiss round. This shows how much LPL's popularity might decline. TES may have a psychological disadvantage against LCK teams, but BLG’s poor performance is puzzling.

Farewell thoughts

Currently, the groupings are very unfavorable for the LPL region. Many fans are even pleading for an internal LPL match in the draw stage, so that regardless of the outcome, at least one LPL team is guaranteed to reach the quarterfinals. This Chengdu showdown might deepen LPL fans' despair, with IG likely becoming the only LPL team to land in Chengdu. (PS: IG has events on finals day and has confirmed early arrival in Chengdu)

What do you all think about this situation?