Issue 25127 of the football victory lottery: Portugal dominates weak opponents, Germany looks concerning, Spain must be more cautious.

1 LatviaVSSerbia

There is a notable disparity in strength between the two sides; the data gives considerable support to the visitors, but the one-and-a-half goal handicap seems hard to justify. Somewhat odd.

First away win, second draw

2Armenia VS Portugal

The strength difference is very large, and the data definitely favors the away team.

Away win

3EnglandVSAndorra

The strength gap between the two teams is significant, and the data strongly supports the home team.

Home win

4AustriaVSCyprus

There is a considerable difference in strength; the home team’s performance at home is very solid, and the visitors have no real ability to compete. The data fully supports the home side.

Home win

5IrelandVSHungary

Although the home team ranks lower, the two sides are roughly equal in strength. The home team is stable at home, while the visitors’ away form is less reassuring,

and the data shows no clear preference; both sides are evenly matched.

First draw, second home win

6San MarinoVSBosnia and Herzegovina

There is a significant strength gap. In the first leg, the home team lost 0-1 away. According to post-match data, the home team showed little attacking threat, but with 5 shots to 21, conceding just one goal shows their defense is not entirely weak and is rather resilient. Returning home, they might surprise.

Of course, the data heavily favors the away team, but this seems exaggerated.

First away win, second draw

7 GeorgiaVSBulgaria

The home team is overall much stronger. In the first match, Georgia lost 2-3 to Turkey but scored twice, indicating decent attacking ability.

The visitors lost 0-3 to Spain in their opener, which was expected.

The data favors the home team considerably, though the margin is somewhat modest.

First home win, second draw

8North MacedoniaVSLiechtenstein

There is a clear strength difference. The home team won 3-0 away in the first leg, and technical stats show they dominated.

Home win

9BelgiumVSKazakhstan

Despite having played one less match, the home team ranks third, but a draw against North Macedonia disrupted their plans. They cannot afford complacency in upcoming games.

The data fully supports the home team.

Home win

10GermanyVSNorthern Ireland

The home team surprisingly lost 0-2 to Slovakia in their first match. Although data shows they dominated, the forwards appeared weak. The visitors won 3-1 away against Luxembourg and are in good form. The home team’s initial defeat leaves room for hope.

The data strongly supports the home side, who must avoid another loss to prevent public embarrassment.

Home win

11LuxembourgVSSlovakia

The home team lost 1-3 to Northern Ireland in their opener, which hurt morale, while the visitors beat Germany 2-0, boosting their confidence.

The data supports the away team but not strongly. Slovakia’s win over Germany was largely luck, and Germany’s forwards remain weak. This data is not very favorable to the visitors.

First away win, second draw

12Poland VS Finland

Both teams have equal points in the group. In the first leg, the home team lost 1-2 away to the visitors and is ranked third. Data shows the home team created many more shooting opportunities but failed to capitalize.

The data now favors the home team more significantly compared to the first leg.

First home win, second draw

13TurkeyVSSpain

There is a considerable strength gap. Both teams won their first matches, but the home team conceded two goals, indicating defensive issues. The data supports the visitors, but not as strongly as expected.

First away win, second draw

14EstoniaVSCyndacara

The home team is overall stronger than the visitors. After three matches, the home team has two draws and one loss without a win, with a goal difference of 5/6. Their offense is decent, but defense is poor.

The visitors have one draw and two losses after three matches, performing worse, possibly due to fatigue from competing on multiple fronts, with a goal difference of 0/4, showing weak attack and poor defense.

The data shows no clear preference, but the visitors are clearly more fatigued than the home team.

First home win, second draw