Issue 25142 Soccer Win-Loss Lottery, World Cup Qualifiers Special, Matches that Seem Clearly Uneven but Actually Risky

1 Oman VS Qatar

Looking at the group stage, the home side hasn't performed as poorly as anticipated, managing a draw with South Korea and a comfortable win over Kuwait, plus one win and one draw against Palestine, although their attack is indeed weaker. The differences are mostly by one goal.

The visitors, however, are relatively strong on paper, mainly composed of naturalized players for the World Cup. Group stage results highlight a clear home advantage and away disadvantage, but their opponent Uzbekistan is still quite formidable in Asia.

The data heavily favors the visitors, but both the home team's attacking power and the visitors' away performance have their weaknesses.

First match draw, second match away win

2 Indonesia VS Saudi Arabia

In terms of strength, the home team is weaker than the visitors, but after naturalizing players, the home side is no longer a pushover, especially performing well at home during the group stage.

During the group stage, the two sides met once, with the home team winning 2-0. Despite the visitors dominating technically throughout the match, the home team ultimately triumphed.

The data strongly supports the visitors, yet the home team managed 24% possession while creating 12 shots, indicating very efficient counterattacks.

First match away win, second match draw

3 Austria VS San Marino

Home win

4 Cyprus VS Bosnia and Herzegovina

The home team is clearly weaker than the visitors, but recent matches show they can draw with Bulgaria and Romania, indicating they are not easily beaten.

The visitors share the same points as Austria and lead the group, but they have played one more match.

The data favors the visitors, though the margin isn't large given the teams' strengths. They met once in March, with the home team losing 1-2 away. Technical stats from both matches show no clear advantage.

First match away win, second match draw

5 Czech Republic VS Croatia

With the home team having played one more match, both teams currently share the same points in the group.

In their first encounter, the home team suffered a heavy 1-5 defeat away to the visitors, with technical stats showing a significant advantage for the visitors, which is reflected in the scoreline.

The data shows no clear bias; it seems external confidence in the visitors is not very strong, which might be worth noting.

First match away win, second match draw

6 Faroe Islands VS Montenegro

In their last meeting, the home team lost 0-1 away, with shots at 4-20 favoring the visitors. Despite this advantage, the visitors won by only one goal, indicating the home team's defense held up well and the visitors’ scoring ability is limited.

The data supports the visitors but with much less intensity than last time, and considering the visitors’ away performance is not as strong as expected, this match might hold some surprises.

First match away win, second match draw

7 Scotland VS Greece

Both teams have similar strength and ranking. The home team currently sits second in the group with one win and one draw: a draw away to Denmark and a win away to Belarus, with a goal difference of 2/0, maintaining good form.

The visitors are third in the group with one win and one loss: a 5-1 home win over Belarus and a 0-3 loss to Denmark, showing inconsistency.

The data shows no clear preference, but the teams have met twice in the UEFA Nations League, each winning once. Technical stats suggest the visitors are slightly stronger, though the home team tends to perform differently at home.

First match away win, second match home win

8 Kazakhstan VS Liechtenstein

Home win

9 Belgium VS North Macedonia

Both teams have performed excellently in their played matches. The home team trails the visitors by one point despite having played one fewer game. Their last meeting ended 1-1 away, with technical stats showing the home team dominated but failed to capitalize on 17 shots versus 7 for the visitors.

The data clearly favors the home team, which is understandable given the significant difference in strength. However, considering current form, the gap may not be so wide, and many home players play abroad—fatigue could be a factor.

First match home win, second match draw

10 France VS Azerbaijan

Home win

11 Germany VS Luxembourg

The home team unexpectedly lost to Slovakia; another upset would make things complicated.

Home win

12 Kosovo VS Slovenia

The home team has one win and one loss, sitting second in the group, having impressively beaten Sweden 2-0 at home.

The visitors have one draw and one loss, placed last in the group, drawing with Sweden and losing away to Switzerland.

The teams have met twice in the UEFA Nations League, with the home team losing both times. Technical stats show the home side is generally weaker but might leverage home advantage to improve.

The data gives slight support to the home team, though not strongly, likely based on their home win against Sweden.

First match away win, second match home win

13 Northern Ireland VS Slovakia

The home team has one win and one loss, currently second in the group, while the visitors are unbeaten in two matches and top the group, notably beating Germany at home.

The data shows no clear preference but slightly favors the home team. Overall, the visitors’ away ability seems somewhat limited.

First match draw, second match home win

14 Sweden VS Switzerland

The home team is stronger than the visitors but has underperformed with one draw and one loss, ranking third in the group. Meanwhile, the visitors are undefeated with two wins and a perfect 7/0 goal difference, showing strong offense and defense.

The data lacks a clear leaning but gives minor support to the home team, which is somewhat surprising. Is there something hidden here?

First match home win, second match away win