Issue 25156 football victory lottery, Dortmund conserving energy for European matches, Girona needs to bounce back, Eindhoven invincible

1 Rotherham vs Coventry

The home team, as a promoted club, achieving twelfth place in the competitive Championship is quite an accomplishment despite a clear gap in overall quality compared to the away team. In their last six games, they have 1 win, 4 draws, and 1 loss; at home, 1 win, 2 draws, 0 losses, scoring 5 and conceding 5, a decent performance. They drew with Millwall and Luton Town, which wasn’t easy. In their last six home matches, they recorded 1 win, 3 draws, 2 losses, scoring 8 and conceding 10. Their offense is solid, but defense needs improvement.

The visitors currently top the table, showing strong form with six wins in six recent matches, no draws or losses; away record is 3 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses, scoring 19 and conceding only 2, extremely impressive. Most opponents are lower-tier teams, yet Millwall, ranked third, suffered a 0-4 home defeat, highlighting the visitors’ strength. In their last six away games, they achieved 4 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses, scoring 18 and conceding 6.

The data supports the visitors. Considering both teams’ strength and form, the advantage given is actually quite small. However, since the visitors lead the second place by only one win, they need to secure enough points against weaker teams to push for promotion, so their motivation is unquestionable.

Away win

2 Augsburg vs Dortmund

The home team stands 15th, recently showing a decline in form. Last round, they were overwhelmed by Leipzig and sometimes appear inconsistent. In their last six games, they have 1 win, 1 draw, 4 losses; at home, 1 win, 0 draws, 2 losses, scoring 7 and conceding 16, indicating poor condition. Their last four home matches yielded 1 win and 3 losses, with 6 goals scored and 14 conceded.

The visitors are competing on multiple fronts and face challenges with a European match next week. They drew their midweek cup game and currently rank fourth, a precarious position that could easily drop out of the top group if careless. Their last six matches include 4 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss; away record is 2 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss, scoring 8 and conceding 3. Their attack and defense are solid, especially defensively. In their last four away games, they recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss, losing to Bayern and drawing with St. Pauli, scoring 8 and conceding 5.

The data favors the visitors, but given both sides’ current form, the support isn’t overwhelming. This may consider the visitors’ multi-competition fatigue and the home team’s strong running capacity, so a cautious defensive approach is justified.

First away win, second draw

3 Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hannover

The home team ranks third with generally good performance but has recently suffered two consecutive defeats, including a 0-3 away cup loss to Hertha Berlin. To aim for promotion, prioritizing the league over the cup is wise to focus energy. In their last six matches, they have 4 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss; at home, 2 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses, scoring 17 and conceding 5. Despite a recent 0-2 away loss to Bielefeld, their overall trend is positive. Their last five home games include 4 wins and 1 draw, scoring 12 and conceding 3, showing strong home ability.

The visitors rank fourth and also perform well, just two points behind. Their last six matches show 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses; away record is 1 win, 2 draws, 0 losses, scoring 10 and conceding 11. Their attack is decent but defense is weaker, overall average. Their last five away games include 3 wins and 2 draws, scoring 11 and conceding 5, reflecting good away strength, but these opponents are mostly lower-tier, so quality is lacking.

The data shows no clear bias but gives the home team some confidence. Considering both sides’ home and away capabilities and their offensive and defensive balance, a peaceful outcome is the best choice.

First draw, second home win

4 Münster vs Kiel

The home team is ranked eleventh, with recent form showing 1 win, 1 draw, 4 losses in six games. At home, they have 1 win, 1 draw, 1 loss, scoring 8 and conceding 13. Their offense appears capable but defense is weak, especially away. In their last five home matches, they recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss, showing decent but unstable home strength. They drew with second-ranked Paderborn and sixteenth-ranked Dresden, scoring 9 and conceding 7.

The visitors rank tenth, with recent form of 2 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss in six matches. Away, they have 1 win, 1 draw, 1 loss, scoring 7 and conceding 4, showing much stronger defense than the home team. Their last five away games include 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses. The two defeats were narrow one-goal losses to second and third place teams, which is understandable. They scored 5 and conceded 4.

The data shows no clear preference but offers some confidence to the visitors. From both teams’ home and away strengths and offense-defense balance, the visitors’ defense is clearly better, yet this data is not very convincing since the home team’s offense remains strong.

First away win, second home win

5 Getafe vs Girona

The home team ranks tenth, with recent form showing 1 win, 2 draws, 3 losses in six games. At home, they have no wins, 2 draws, 1 loss, scoring 4 and conceding 8. Their recent offense and defense are not great. In four home matches, they have one win, two draws, and one loss, including a narrow one-goal loss to Real Madrid. They play a style of "I can’t beat you, but you won’t win easily."

The visitors are bottom-ranked, started with three straight losses but have recently begun to recover. Given their strength, they shouldn’t be limited to this level. In their last six games, they have 1 win, 3 draws, 2 losses; away record is 0 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss, scoring 7 and conceding 11. Their defense is decent, and their attack is not bad. In four away matches, they have two draws and two losses, scoring 3 and conceding 9. They lost 5-0 to Villarreal but still managed to score in each game, which is notable.

The data supports the home team, but considering recent offense and defense, the visitors show potential to improve.

First draw, second away win

6 Annecy vs Boulogne

The home team ranks eleventh, with recent form showing 2 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses in six games. At home, they have 1 win, 1 draw, 1 loss, scoring 8 and conceding 7. Their attack is decent. In five home matches, they won 4-0 against second-ranked Saint-Étienne, a remarkable result, but overall are inconsistent, scoring 8 and conceding 5, showing some home strength.

The visitors lack overall strength, currently 16th, just above the relegation zone by one point. Their recent form is 2 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses; away record is 2 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss, scoring 9 and conceding 12. Their attack is good but defense is weak. They have not won in their last three matches and form is declining. In five away games, they have 2 wins and 3 losses, scoring 4 and conceding 4, showing unstable performance.

The data strongly favors the home team. Considering recent form and home/away strength, the home team is unlikely to lose.

First home win, second draw

7 Bastia vs Clermont

The home team is bottom-ranked, with recent form showing no wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses in six games. At home, they have 0 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss, scoring 2 and conceding 8. Their offense and defense are very poor. In their last four home matches, they have 2 draws and 2 losses, with no victories, scoring 3 and conceding 6, showing very limited home ability.

The visitors rank fourteenth, with recent form showing 1 win, 2 draws, 3 losses. Away, they have 1 win, 0 draws, 2 losses, scoring 5 and conceding 10. Their attack is better than the home team but defense is worse. In six away games, they have 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, scoring 6 and conceding 9.

The data strongly favors the home team, but given both sides’ current form, this is not justified. Moreover, the home team’s home ability is weaker than the visitors’ away capability, so it’s better to follow the visitors.

First home win, second away win

8 Guingamp vs Laval

The home team ranks tenth, with recent form showing 2 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss in six games. At home, they have 1 win, 1 draw, 1 loss, scoring 9 and conceding 8, a reasonable performance. In six home matches, they have 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses, scoring 8 and conceding 11, showing normal form.

The visitors rank seventeenth, in the relegation zone, with recent form showing no wins, 2 draws, 4 losses. Away, they have 0 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss, scoring 1 and conceding 7, poor offense and defense. In their last five away games, they have 1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss, scoring 4 and conceding 4. Although seemingly decent, opponents were relatively weak, so the quality is lacking.

The data supports the home team, which is reasonable based on both teams’ current form. Additionally, the home team’s overall strength is slightly higher than the visitors’, providing some assurance.

Home win

9 Le Mans vs Nancy

The home team ranks seventh, with recent form showing 3 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses in six games. At home, they have 2 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses, scoring 9 and conceding 6, performing well. Troyes and Saint-Étienne have not taken advantage. In their last six home matches, they have 3 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses, scoring 6 and conceding 5, showing average home form.

The visitors rank fourteenth, with recent form showing 2 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses. Away, they have 1 win, 1 draw, 1 loss, scoring 7 and conceding 9. In six away games, they have 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses, scoring 8 and conceding 11. Their attack is stronger than the home team but defense is much weaker.

The data supports the home team but not strongly. Considering both teams’ recent performances, the home team still holds the advantage.

Home win

10 Montpellier vs Rodez

The home team ranks sixth with decent overall performance. Their recent form shows 3 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses; at home, 1 win, 0 draws, 2 losses, scoring 8 and conceding 7. In six matches, they have 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses; at home, 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses, scoring 9 and conceding 8.

The visitors rank tenth, with recent form showing 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses. Away, they have 1 win, 1 draw, 1 loss, scoring 10 and conceding 10. Their attacking ability is quite strong. In their last five away matches, they have 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses, scoring 6 and conceding 9.

The data supports the home team with considerable confidence. It is worth noting that the visitors also held Saint-Étienne to a draw on the road, which is impressive.

First home win, second draw

11 Eindhoven vs Fortuna

The home team had a big European win over Dudelange and also won away against first-ranked Feyenoord, boosting their confidence. The visitors have weaker away ability.

The data strongly supports the home team, as expected.

Home win

12 Den Bosch vs Graafschap

The home team ranks seventh, with recent form showing 3 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses. At home, they have 1 win, 1 draw, 0 losses, scoring 7 and conceding 11. Their defense is unstable, with two losses away. In their last six home matches, they have 3 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss, scoring 15 and conceding 10. Despite defensive issues, their attack is strong.

The visitors rank tenth, with recent form showing 2 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss. Away, they have 0 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss, scoring 10 and conceding 10. Their attack and defense ratio seems better than the home team, but their opponents are weaker, so the quality is less. In six away games, they have 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses, scoring 10 and conceding 8.

The data shows no clear bias but slightly favors the visitors. Both sides have strong attacks and weak defenses, so this could be a high-scoring match.

First away win, second home win

13 Oss vs Helmond

The home team ranks sixteenth, with recent form showing no wins, 4 draws, 2 losses. At home, they have no wins, 2 draws, 1 loss, scoring 5 and conceding 10. Their offense and defense are weak. Although they conceded many goals, including five against Den Haag, their overall defense is acceptable, which explains the many draws. In six home matches, they have 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses, scoring 9 and conceding 8, showing moderate home ability.

The visitors rank twelfth, with recent form showing 3 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses. Away, they have no wins, no draws, 2 losses, scoring 8 and conceding 7. All three wins came at home. In six away games, they have no wins, 1 draw, 5 losses, scoring 3 and conceding 10, showing very poor away form.

The data shows no clear bias but slightly favors the visitors. However, considering both teams’ home and away strength, this data is not very convincing.

First away win, second home win

14 Lisbon vs Avica

The home team has played nine matches since the season started, with eight wins, one draw, and one loss. Their loss was to Porto, and the draw was with Braga, both reasonable results. They have won all other matches and are currently in excellent form, ranked second.

The visitors have played nine matches, with three wins, one draw, and five losses. Their three wins were against lower-ranked teams, the strongest being eleventh-place Gilman, so the quality is insufficient.

Both teams just finished a cup match and now face a league game. The home team crushed the visitors 5-1. Although shots seemed balanced, the shot-on-target ratio of 7-2 heavily favored the home team, leaving the visitors with little chance.

The data gives the home team absolute confidence. Although they have a European match next Wednesday, there are four days between games, providing ample time to recover, so the impact should be minimal.

Home win