U23 Saudi Arabia - U23 Vietnam: A decisive battle for the top spot in the group

Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan each have an opportunity to claim one of the two quarterfinal places from Group A at the 2026 AFC U23 Asian Cup. The final decision on which two teams advance will only be made after the last group stage matches on January 12.

U23 Vietnam is currently one of the most impressive teams at the 2026 AFC U23 Asian Cup finals. Coach Kim Sang-sik’s squad has 6 points so far. The best-case scenario is to avoid defeat against the hosts in the last match. By securing at least a draw or a win against U23 Saudi Arabia, Đình Bắc and his teammates will be guaranteed to top the group with a minimum of 7 points, thus advancing to the quarterfinals.

Under Coach Kim Sang-sik’s guidance, U23 Vietnam’s 3-4-3 formation is running very smoothly. The current lineup balances all areas well. The defense, led by Hiểu Minh and goalkeeper Trung Kiên, has stood firm against intense pressure from Central Asian teams.

U23 Saudi Arabia boasts a squad of standout stars and the advantage of being the host, so they were expected to dominate Group A easily. However, the reality has been quite the opposite. Coach Luigi Di Biagio’s team has shown inconsistency in this tournament. Although maintaining a controlling style, their ability to finish off opponents has significantly declined.

After the first two matches, U23 Saudi Arabia has been disappointing, culminating in a shocking 2-3 loss to U23 Jordan. This defeat not only cost Saudi Arabia early control over their fate but also put them in a difficult position before the final match against U23 Vietnam.

Even in the worst-case scenario where U23 Vietnam loses to U23 Saudi Arabia by a one-goal margin, they would still advance to the knockout stage due to a better tiebreaker record against Saudi Arabia. Additionally, if U23 Jordan fails to beat U23 Kyrgyzstan in the last round, Coach Kim Sang-sik’s team will still qualify among the eight quarterfinalists.

The most challenging situation arises if U23 Vietnam loses to U23 Saudi Arabia and simultaneously U23 Jordan beats U23 Kyrgyzstan. In that case, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan will all have 6 points. According to the tournament rules, rankings will be decided by the head-to-head results among the three teams before considering goal difference.

For Jordan, to ensure progression, they must win against Kyrgyzstan and hope Saudi Arabia either draws with Vietnam or wins by a large margin in the final group match.

Although highly rated before the tournament, U23 Saudi Arabia has displayed a somewhat fragmented style, failing to show the absolute strength expected from a continental powerhouse. The hosts face the risk of early elimination if they do not achieve a favorable result against Coach Kim Sang-sik’s team in the final round.

Historically, Saudi Arabia is one of the most successful teams in the AFC U23 Asian Cup. They have participated in six previous editions, regularly advancing deep into the knockout stages and frequently appearing in the semifinals and finals. Their peak achievement was winning the 2022 U23 Asian Cup in Uzbekistan convincingly, without conceding a single goal throughout the tournament. During that campaign, the West Asian side defeated strong opponents such as Australia, Uzbekistan, and notably U23 Vietnam.

This team has also finished as runners-up twice, narrowly losing in the finals to Iraq (2013) and South Korea (2020).

Since the remarkable victory over Argentina at the 2022 World Cup by the national team, Saudi Arabian football seems to be in decline. This downturn is evident as their U23 team was eliminated early at the 2023 Hangzhou Asian Games and the 2025 U20 World Cup group stage. They also exited at the quarterfinals of the 2024 U23 Asian Cup. The upcoming decisive match against U23 Vietnam will be a crucial test of the former champions’ resilience.

Group A standings:

U23 Saudi Arabia faces intense pressure from high expectations at home, while U23 Vietnam is riding high with two wins, boosting Coach Kim Sang-sik’s team’s confidence.

The match between U23 Vietnam and U23 Saudi Arabia in the final Group A round at the 2026 AFC U23 Asian Cup will take place at 11:30 PM on January 12.