AFF Cup 2026: Why Indonesia is placed in the third seed group, increasing the chance of a 'group of death'

The Indonesian national team was placed in the third seed pot at the AFF Cup 2026 draw, expected to be held in Jakarta on January 15 afternoon.

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Group stage draw AFF Cup 2026 is approaching, and one of the most notable details is Indonesia’s position. According to the seeding results published by the ASEAN Football Federation (AFF), Indonesia is in the third seed group, even ranked below Singapore – a surprise to many fans in the region.

The reason lies in how AFF determines the seed order, based on the teams' performances in the last two tournaments, including AFF Cup 2024 and 2022. In the 2024 edition, Indonesia disappointed by failing to advance past the group stage. Earlier, in the 2022 AFF Cup, the team was eliminated in the semifinals. With these two results, Indonesia scored only 5.5 points according to AFF’s ranking system.

The 5.5 points place Indonesia sixth out of the 11 AFF members, ranked behind Philippines (5 points), Singapore (4), Malaysia (3), Thailand (2), and Vietnam (1). Vietnam holds the highest position as the reigning champion and finalist of AFF Cup 2022. Thailand follows closely with the same points but ranks below Vietnam due to tiebreaker criteria.

In fact, Indonesia's drop to the third seed group has opened up the possibility of “groups of death” right from the group stage. With the current seeding method, it’s possible that Indonesia will have to face strong opponents like Vietnam or Thailand early on, possibly along with Malaysia, competing for the two semifinal spots.

During AFF Cup 2024, Indonesia was grouped with Vietnam, Philippines, Myanmar, and Laos. Despite not being in a particularly tough group, Indonesia still failed to advance. The main reason was the Indonesian Football Association’s (PSSI) decision to send only the U23 squad, treating the tournament as preparation for the 33rd SEA Games.

Commenting on Indonesia’s current situation, CNN Indonesia stated: “Indonesia must accept the reality that their quest for the AFF Cup 2026 title is predicted to be challenging right from the group stage. Being outside the seeded groups increases the chance of facing strong teams such as Vietnam or Thailand, or even Malaysia, early in the competition for the two semifinal spots.”

Historically, Indonesia has frequently reached the AFF Cup finals and is often considered a strong contender, but has never won the championship. Therefore, AFF Cup 2026 is seen as a crucial test for coach John Herdman in his early tenure. On his debut, the coach confirmed he would focus on developing young talent, viewing the tournament as an opportunity to shape a long-term identity for the Indonesian team.

AFF Cup 2026 is scheduled from July 24 to August 26, a sensitive period for players active in Europe. Many domestic leagues are in pre-season or just starting their initial rounds, making it harder than ever for Indonesia to assemble their strongest squad.