Securing Guehi! Manchester City acts both as an urgent solution and a future investment

Written by Han Bing Last summer, Crystal Palace halted Guehi’s transfer at the deadline, yet four months later they couldn’t hold on to their captain, who was chased by major clubs. Manchester City continued their swift actions from last winter, but this premium signing of Guehi caused a much bigger ripple effect. The Blues acquired the best center-back available in the market, not only dampening the morale of rivals Liverpool, Bayern Munich, and Real Madrid, but also denying Arsenal and Chelsea—both interested in Guehi—the chance to strengthen their defenses. For Manchester City, eager to rebound in the second half of the season, this was a dual victory both on the pitch and in off-field negotiations.

Top clubs like Liverpool and Bayern hoped to sign Guehi on a high-paying free transfer this summer. Liverpool believed Guehi was willing to wait until then to join as a free agent, while Bayern used Kane (English teammate) and Olise (former Palace teammate) to persuade Guehi, but they too only wanted a summer free transfer. Manchester City exploited this timing gap and capitalized on Crystal Palace chairman Parish’s unwillingness to lose his captain for free in the summer, striking first to secure priority in negotiations. After Guehi’s transfer, Palace manager Glatzner angrily announced he would leave in the summer, signaling that selling Guehi in winter was driven more by financial reasons than sporting ones.

Manchester City began actively pursuing Guehi from New Year’s Day, aiming to secure him in the winter window. Sources reveal Guehi initially had reservations about joining City without a guaranteed starting spot. However, on January 6, City defenders Gvardiol and Ruben Dias were both injured, especially Gvardiol’s right tibia fracture, sidelining him for the rest of the season. This meant Guehi could secure a starting position for the remainder of the campaign. The Blues then pursued him with full force, while Liverpool, after assessing the cost of signing Guehi in winter, chose to withdraw.

Guehi’s rapid signing by Manchester City was partly thanks to Semenyo. Sources disclose that Semenyo’s transfer was delayed due to last-minute changes in payment terms. City will pay £62.5 million over two years to free up funds for Guehi. Guehi’s transfer fee was £20 million plus add-ons, and City paid a huge commission to his agent to secure the Palace defender. The commission reportedly exceeded Guehi’s £10 million annual salary demand last summer, estimated at £15 million, plus a weekly wage close to six times what he earned at Palace, reaching £300,000. Over five and a half years, City’s total cost for Guehi’s contract is at least £120 million.

Both Liverpool and Bayern considered paying such a price for a center-back with only half a year left on his contract not worthwhile, but Guardiola believed it was justified. With Stones and Ak likely to leave when their contracts expire this summer, Guehi can fill their gap without disrupting the wage structure. The value of signing Guehi lies not only in acquiring a top-level, ready-to-play Premier League center-back but also in “snatching” a coveted player from competitors. Since top center-backs are scarce, City’s capture of Guehi is, in a way, a “trophy” in the transfer market.

Guehi possesses the qualities Guardiola needs to alter tactical style: stable ball control and the ability to quickly advance from the left center-back position to assist attacks. Guardiola has always sought greater involvement from goalkeepers and defenders in offense. Although Guehi plays on the left but is right-footed, his versatile style allows him to cover any defensive position. He effectively halts opponent counterattacks; his sharp anticipation and excellent mobility enable continuous cover, making him a key defender against counterattacks under City’s high pressing system. Last season, City’s expected goals conceded on counters was as high as 8.1; though improved this season, it still falls short of ideal. Guehi’s decision-making and mobility make him an efficient sweeper, significantly enhancing City’s defense during fast breaks.

Along with Husainov and Hayes, signed last winter, and Alene, recalled early from Watford two weeks ago, Guehi’s arrival means Manchester City has completed its defensive overhaul. Over the past 24 months, City has invested over €580 million, acquiring 17 players to build a younger championship team centered around Haaland. Even if Guardiola departs this summer, the rich “legacy” he leaves behind will enable any successor to mount a strong challenge for the title.