Issue 26014 Football Victory or Defeat Fourteen Matches, Europa League Special, Villa Unstable, Porto Beware of Upset

1. Brann VS Cerezo Osaka

The home team’s overall strength is lower than the away team’s, and recent six games show their offense and defense are noticeably weaker, though their defense is decent.

The data supports the away team, but only marginally; combined with home conditions such as weather and turf, there is a lot of unpredictability.

First choice: away win; second choice: draw

2. Bologna VS Celtic

The home team’s overall strength surpasses the visitors’. In the last six matches, their offense and defense are significantly better, especially defensively. The data gives the home team a considerable advantage, and with home field advantage, this match seems quite straightforward.

Home win

3. Fenerbahçe VS Aston Villa

Although the home team’s overall strength is below the away team’s, they have demonstrated some home advantage by beating teams like Stuttgart and Nice in the last six games.

The away team’s offense and defense are better overall, but the gap between both sides is relatively close.

The data shows no clear bias but indirectly gives some support to the home team.

First choice: home win; second choice: away win

4. Feyenoord VS Sturm Graz

First choice: home win; second choice: draw

5. Malmö FF VS Red Star Belgrade

The home team’s European campaign has been poor: six matches with 0 wins, 1 draw, 5 losses; at home 0 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses; scoring 3 goals and conceding 12. Their strength and form have declined significantly this season.

The visitors have 3 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses in six matches; away record is 1 win, 0 draws, 2 losses; scored 5 and conceded 5. Although their offense hasn’t shown superiority, they have won the last three matches by a single goal, showing good form and solid defense.

The data supports the away team; theoretically, the strength of this support is moderate, but the visitors appear stable.

Away win

6. Cesena VS Real Betis

The home team’s last six matches include 2 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss; home record 1 win, 2 draws, 0 losses; scored 13 and conceded 10; unbeaten in the last four games, performing well, though opponents were relatively weak, lowering the quality of results.

Visitors’ six matches show 4 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses; away record 2 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses; scoring 11 and conceding 4, with strong offense and defense.

The data shows no strong bias but slightly favors the visitors; however, the home team’s attacking qualities should not be overlooked.

First choice: away win; second choice: draw

7. Viktoria Plzeň VS Porto

The home team’s six European matches include 2 wins, 4 draws, 0 losses; home record 1 win, 2 draws, 0 losses; scored 6 and conceded 2; overall performance is good, with solid defense despite weaker attack.

The visitors have 4 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss in six European matches; away record 1 win, 1 draw, 1 loss; scored 9 and conceded 5; although their attack is strong, their defense has flaws, especially away.

The data supports the visitors, but given the teams’ strength comparison, this support seems insufficient, making this match prone to an upset.

First choice: away win; second choice: home win

8. Young Boys VS Lyon

The home team’s six European matches show 3 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses; home record 2 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss; scored 8 and conceded 12; notably, they defeated Ligue 1’s Lille at home, which is significant.

Visitors have 5 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss in six European matches; away record 2 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss; scored 13 and conceded 3; their only away loss was to the stronger Betis.

The data favors the visitors, and the strength of support is adequate.

Away win

9. Braga VS Nottingham Forest

The home team’s six European matches include 4 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss; home record 2 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss; scored 10 and conceded 5; overall balanced offense and defense.

The visitors have 3 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss in six European matches; away record 1 win, 2 draws, 0 losses; scored 11 and conceded 6; their offense and defense are similar to the home team, but away ability is somewhat lacking. Additionally, their league performance may distract them.

First choice: away win; second choice: home win

10. Celta Vigo VS Lille

The home team’s recent league form is quite good; in six European matches, they have 3 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses; home record 2 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss; scored 12 and conceded 9; they have attacking strength but weak defense.

Visitors have 3 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses in six European matches; away record 1 win, 0 draws, 2 losses; their away performance is not outstanding.

The data shows no clear bias, but based on European home and away strength, the home team might be slightly stronger. However, the visitors’ defense is also quite solid.

First choice: home win; second choice: draw

11. Nice VS HJK Helsinki

Both teams have performed poorly in their leagues, with very weak offense and defense on both sides.

The data strongly supports the home team, but this support appears weak and underestimates the visitors.

Draw

12. Roma VS Stuttgart

The home team is definitely aiming for a top-four finish this season to qualify for next season’s Champions League. In six European matches, they have 4 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses; home record 1 win, 0 draws, 2 losses; scored 10 and conceded 5.

Visitors have 4 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses in six European matches; away record 1 win, 0 draws, 2 losses; scored 12 and conceded 5.

The data favors the home team slightly; although not strong, the home side is known for pragmatic play.

First choice: home win; second choice: draw

13. Salzburg VS Basel

The home team’s six European matches show 1 win, 0 draws, 5 losses; home record 1 win, 0 draws, 2 losses; scored 5 and conceded 11; their performance is poor.

Visitors have 2 wins, 0 draws, 4 losses in six European matches; away record 0 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses; scored 8 and conceded 9; their away form is disappointing.

The data shows no clear bias, but since the visitors lack strong away capability and the home team’s overall strength is higher, the home side may have the upper hand.

Home win

14. Utrecht VS Genk

The home team’s six European matches include 0 wins, 1 draw, 5 losses; home record 0 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses; scored 3 and conceded 9; their offense and defense are weak.

Visitors have 3 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses in six European matches; away record 2 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss; scored 7 and conceded 6; clearly stronger than the home team.

The data shows no clear bias but gives some confidence to the visitors, which aligns with both teams’ recent form. However, do not forget the home team managed a draw against Porto at home.

First choice: away win; second choice: draw