Supercomputer predicts unbelievable outcome for Arsenal vs Sporting CP match

Can Arsenal reach the Champions League semifinals for the second consecutive season? The supercomputer's forecast for the home match against Sporting CP at Emirates Stadium will reveal the prospects for Mikel Arteta's squad.

Arsenal maintains unbeaten record against Sporting CP in European competitions (won 4, drawn 4). According to Opta's supercomputer, "The Gunners" have a 61.9% chance of winning the return match.

The London club has also lost only once in their last 12 encounters against Portuguese representatives (won 6, drawn 5), and remains unbeaten in their last 8 home matches against opponents from this country (won 6, drawn 2). Meanwhile, Sporting CP boasts an impressive record of winning 9 out of 10 two-legged ties against English clubs in European cups.

Arsenal needs to regain form

Arsenal faces the opportunity to reach the Champions League semifinals for two consecutive seasons for the first time, but their form has declined after losing 1-2 to Bournemouth, marking their third defeat in four recent matches. With an extremely low live-ball xG (0.19), "The Gunners" are under significant pressure as Manchester City has narrowed the gap to 6 points and has played one fewer match. In this context, Arteta's team must secure a victory to restore morale and maintain advantage ahead of the crucial return leg.

Match prediction

According to Opta, Arsenal has a 61.9% chance of winning within 90 minutes, while Sporting's winning probability is only 16.5%, and the draw likelihood is 21.6%. With home advantage and superior head-to-head record, Arsenal is still rated higher in this rematch. However, Sporting certainly won't give up easily and could pose significant challenges for the Emirates Stadium hosts.

Advantage lies with Arsenal

Arsenal holds a significant advantage after a 1-0 away win thanks to Kai Havertz's late goal, which also marks their 10th victory in 11 Champions League matches this season. History fully supports "The Gunners" as they remain unbeaten in 8 European meetings against Sporting and have won 19 out of 20 two-legged knockout ties after winning away. At home, Arsenal is also very solid with only 1 defeat in their last 23 European cup matches, while keeping a clean sheet in 16 out of 22 matches at Emirates.

Sporting CP hopes to reverse the situation

Despite never having beaten Arsenal in European competitions, Sporting CP still hopes to create a surprise, having eliminated this same opponent in the Europa League 2022/23. However, they have a very poor away record in England, not winning since 2005, and have never won a Champions League knockout away match since 1970. Nevertheless, Sporting has shown resilience by overturning Bodø/Glimt and is in good form with three consecutive domestic victories.