The top five leagues continuously share the Champions League semifinals, does the Swiss format create equalization?

Written by Han Bing After the Champions League reform to the Swiss format, the semifinals have been shared by four of the top five leagues for the second consecutive season. Last season featured the leaders of La Liga, Serie A, and Ligue 1 at that time, along with the runner-up of the Premier League; this season includes the current leaders of the Premier League, Bundesliga, and Ligue 1, along with the fourth-place team from La Liga.

Perhaps coincidental but more likely a trend: the "top-position dominance" and "equalization" of the top five leagues in the Champions League semifinals over the past two seasons aligns completely with the new Champions League reform and expansion.

Before the Swiss format reform, the last time the top five leagues evenly shared the Champions League semifinals was in the 2017/18 season, with one team each from the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, and Bundesliga. Looking back to the 1999/2000 season when the Champions League group stage expanded to 32 teams, over the 25 years until the Swiss format reform, having semifinalists evenly from the top five leagues occurred only twice: besides 2017/18, it was in the 2009/10 season.

Strictly speaking, the Champions League in the 21st century has largely been dominated by the major leagues—in the 32-team era, only three non-top-five league teams reached the semifinals: Porto in 2003/04, PSV Eindhoven in 2004/05, and Ajax in 2018/19. After the Swiss format, a more notable trend is that not only have the top five leagues evenly shared the semifinal spots for two consecutive years, but most of the qualifying teams are the leaders of their respective leagues.

The "top-position dominance" and "equalization" of the Champions League semifinals in the 36-team era are fundamentally rooted in the widening economic gap among elite clubs. This season's semifinalists all rank within the top 13 globally in revenue for the 2024/25 season: Bayern Munich (3rd), Paris Saint-Germain (4th), and Arsenal (7th) each exceed €800 million in revenue, while Atlético Madrid (13th) also surpasses €500 million. For the 2024/25 Champions League semifinals, Paris Saint-Germain (3rd), Barcelona (6th), Arsenal (7th), and Inter Milan (14th) are included, with Inter Milan's revenue also in the €400 million range.

The last time a Champions League semifinalist was not among the top 20 in the Deloitte Football Money League was Villarreal from La Liga in the 2021/22 season. At that time, Europe was in a post-pandemic economic crisis, allowing underdogs to reach the semifinals. In the subsequent four seasons, all Champions League semifinalists have been within the Deloitte top 20, with the lowest rank being 16th (AC Milan in the 2022/23 season).

This economic-based disparity is amplified through the eight-match league phase of the Swiss format, ultimately favoring teams with stronger foundations and smoother operations in terms of points and knockout draw advantages, which in turn shapes the final semifinal landscape.

Another notable phenomenon in the new Champions League format is that for two consecutive seasons, the semifinals have produced a bracket potentially yielding a new champion. Last season, it was the bracket containing Arsenal and Paris Saint-Germain, resulting in Paris Saint-Germain, then leading Ligue 1, achieving their dream. This season, it is the bracket with Arsenal and Atlético Madrid. Last season Paris realized their dream; this season, could Arsenal or Atlético Madrid achieve theirs?

After the Champions League quarter-finals, the latest championship odds show Bayern Munich surpassing Arsenal—who face concerns over recent form and a congested schedule—to top the list (2.75), compared to their pre-quarter-final odds (4.33), indicating widespread confidence in the German giants. Arsenal not only dropped from first to second place, but their current odds (3) have only slightly increased compared to pre-quarter-final odds (3.25). Paris Saint-Germain's championship odds rose from (6) to (3.5), moving from fourth to third. Atlético Madrid's odds also surged from (21) to (8.5). Given Atlético's current form and upcoming schedule, if they can win the Copa del Rey this weekend, their rising morale could subtly influence the outcome of the Champions League semifinals.