UEFA Champions League Final: A New King Crowned? A New Dynasty Established?

By Han Bing. The Champions League final in Budapest in the early hours of May 31 may not be a memorable one. UEFA officially defines the final as a "clash of opposites," as if the contrasting styles of the two teams make the outcome predictable. When the final whistle blows, will we witness Arsenal crowned as a new king, or Paris Saint-Germain establishing a new dynasty with a successful title defense?

What can change in a year? A year ago, in the Champions League semifinals, PSG swept aside Arsenal in both legs to reach the final and win the title. The openness of those two matches was astonishing: besides three goals, PSG missed a penalty and hit the post twice; Arsenal forced Donnarumma to make six brilliant saves and posted a higher expected goals figure than the eventual champions. A year later, PSG's starting lineup differs only in the goalkeeper position, while Arsenal has undergone personnel changes in nearly half of its positions.

The massive investment in last summer's transfer market allowed Arteta to build a team with a very different style from a year ago: more emphasis on physicality, less open attacking play but greater all-round capability. Combined with unprecedentedly successful set-piece tactics, this year's Arsenal knows better how to win rather than entertain. The debate over style has subsided after winning the Premier League trophy, and just like that league title, this year represents Arsenal's best opportunity to claim the Champions League.

Both teams are competing for European club football's highest honor, but it also serves as a test of World Cup form. Each side boasts numerous key players from World Cup favorites: England's Rice and Saka; France's Dembélé, Doué, Barcola, Emery, Lucas, and Saliba; Spain's Raya, Zubimendi, and Ruiz; Portugal's Mendes, Vitinha, Neves, and Gonçalo; Germany's Havertz; and Brazil's Marquinhos, Gabriel, and Martinelli... The performance of these internationals from title contenders in the Champions League final will, to some extent, act as a barometer for the World Cup.

In pre-match title odds, PSG (1.61) is clearly ahead of Arsenal (2.30). However, the final is unlikely to replicate last year's overly open semifinal between these two sides, nor will it echo the scenes of PSG's semifinal against Bayern. The match will probably come down to who makes fewer mistakes and who capitalizes on opportunities better. Additionally, the physical limits at the end of a long season could prove decisive.

Counting the Champions League final in Budapest, Arsenal has played 63 matches this season, while PSG has played 56. Arsenal has the most games among all clubs in Europe's top five leagues. PSG not only has fewer matches but also rotated extensively in Ligue 1. This season in Ligue 1, Dembélé and Marquinhos started only 11 times, Neves, Mendes, and Ruiz started 13 times, Doué and Hakimi started 16 times, and Kvaratskhelia started 18 times. None of the eight key players surpassed half of the total season minutes. PSG is not without injury problems, but ample rotation allowed injured players sufficient rest.

Despite Arsenal having sufficient bench depth, Arteta still started most of his key players as often as possible. Goalkeeper Raya played all 38 Premier League matches and 13 of the 14 Champions League games. Rice, Zubimendi, Gabriel, and Saliba each started at least 30 Premier League matches. Six players across both teams have logged over 4,000 minutes in all competitions, with only Emery for PSG. Among the 12 players with over 3,000 minutes, PSG has only three.

From the 2024 Paris Olympics to PSG's Champions League triumph in 2025, will Paris enjoy three consecutive years of celebration? The French capital is already on high alert, with 8,000 police officers and gendarmes deployed in the areas centered around the Champs-Élysées, and a total of 22,000 security personnel mobilized to prevent post-final unrest. In addition to the 17,000 fans traveling to Budapest, the Parc des Princes will open its doors, with four giant LED screens measuring 18 meters long and 10 meters wide set up inside to broadcast the match live. A grand concert will also be held before the game to build excitement for the final.

PSG players will each receive a €1 million bonus only if they win the title. The club has already prepared victory celebrations, planning to gather with 100,000 fans at the Champ de Mars on Sunday evening to celebrate a successful title defense. But Arsenal will not give up easily, and Enrique acknowledged that this year's Arsenal is formidable, with solid defense and highly effective set pieces as their sharpest weapon. PSG, however, is the team that has conceded the most shots and goals from errors in this season's Champions League, so they cannot afford to be complacent.

UEFA officially defines the final as a "clash of opposites": PSG, the highest-scoring team in this season's Champions League with 44 goals, against Arsenal, the stingiest defense with only 6 goals conceded. L'Équipe acknowledges that PSG's strength has declined compared to last year, but their final experience still gives them a significant advantage. Arsenal lacks confidence in finals; only forward Havertz and substitute goalkeeper Kepa have Champions League final experience. A poll by L'Équipe shows that 74% of French fans believe PSG will successfully defend their title. This is due not only to their physical edge but also to their abundant experience in major finals.