World Cup 2026: Iraq faces the challenge named Erling Haaland

According to the evaluation of the Opta data analysis system, Norway is a strong candidate for victory, securing up to a 77.4% probability of winning in 25,000 match simulations. The likelihood of the match ending in a draw is 14%, while Iraq's chance of causing an upset stands at only 8.6%.

Norway enters the 2026 World Cup with impressive form. The Nordic team is one of two European national teams to achieve a perfect record in the UEFA qualifying round, alongside England. Coach Ståle Solbakken's squad won all eight matches, scoring 37 goals with an average rate of 4.6 goals per game — the highest in the history of World Cup qualifying campaigns for European teams with four or more World Cup qualification matches.

A major contributor to this achievement is striker Erling Haaland. The Norwegian forward scored 16 goals in qualifying, double that of any other player in Europe. On the international stage, Haaland has netted 55 goals in 50 appearances for the national team, becoming Norway's biggest hope for the tournament this year.

Alongside Haaland, Norway also possesses numerous quality players such as Martin Odegaard, Alexander Sorloth, and Antonio Nusa. Among them, captain Odegaard led Europe in assists during the qualifying round with seven.

This marks Norway's first appearance at the World Cup since 1998. Previously, the team participated in the 1994 World Cup in the USA and the 1998 World Cup in France but did not advance far on either occasion.

Meanwhile, Iraq is the team that secured the final ticket to the 2026 World Cup. The West Asian side had to go through as many as 21 qualifying matches — more than any other team — before officially earning the right to participate in the greatest football festival on the planet. Iraq earned its World Cup spot after defeating Bolivia 2-1 in the intercontinental playoff held in Mexico.

Coach Graham Arnold is expected to make a difference for Iraq. The Australian manager previously led the Australian team into the Round of 16 of the 2022 World Cup in Qatar and is considered to have extensive experience in major tournaments.

However, Iraq finds itself in a group considered the toughest of the tournament, featuring teams from France, Senegal, and Norway. According to Opta's power rankings, Iraq's chance of advancing to the knockout stage is only 20.5%, significantly lower than France (95.6%), Norway (87%), and Senegal (60.9%).

The match against Norway also marks the first encounter between the two teams in history. It is simultaneously the first time Norway will face a representative of the Asian Football Confederation (AFC) at a World Cup.

For Iraq, the immediate goal is not only to secure points but also to improve upon their performance in their only previous World Cup appearance in 1986, when the team lost all three group stage matches. To achieve this, Iraq must first find a solution to the puzzle named Erling Haaland, one of the most dangerous forwards in the world today.