World Cup 2026: Opta Supercomputer Rates France as Top Contender for Title

According to a TTXVN correspondent in Paris, in the latest forecast released on July 12, Opta estimates that France has a 34.05% chance of winning the 2026 World Cup. This is the highest rate among the four semi-finalists and more than 10 percentage points higher than the other contenders.

Spain ranks second with a 23.45% chance of winning, followed by England (21.94%), while defending champion Argentina is considered to have the lowest chance at 20.55%.

In the semi-finals, Opta predicts France has a 57.7% chance of overcoming Spain in the match at AT&T Stadium in Dallas. In the other semi-final, England is rated slightly higher than Argentina but the margin is very narrow, with a 50.94% probability of reaching the final, compared to 49.06% for the South American representative.

Before the start of the 2026 World Cup, Opta ranked Spain as the top favorite, with France in second place. However, the impressive performances of Didier Deschamps' squad since the beginning of the tournament have propelled 'Les Bleus' to the top of the forecast rankings.

France enters the semi-finals after successively defeating Senegal, Paraguay, and Morocco, becoming the first team in the country's history to reach three consecutive World Cup semi-finals. Meanwhile, Spain maintains an impressive unbeaten streak and is considered France's biggest rival in their quest for a third World Cup title.

Opta is a specialist provider of data and statistical analysis for major tournaments worldwide. The organization's forecasts are based on tens of thousands of supercomputer simulations, incorporating indicators such as form, squad strength, head-to-head history, and tournament progress. However, Opta also notes that the probabilities only reflect likelihood according to the statistical model, and actual results depend on the real-time developments of each match.