Argentines are betting heavily on their home team to defeat Spain in the final.

According to a prediction survey released on July 17 by the financial platform Mercado Pago, among millions of Argentine users participating in the Fixture 2026 program, up to 96% predicted that Argentina would overcome Spain to claim the championship, while only 1% believed Spain would win. The remaining 3% thought the two teams would draw after regular time and need a penalty shootout to decide the winner.

Mercado Pago stated that this free prediction program attracted 10.8 million Argentine participants, nearly a quarter of the South American country's population. Those with the most accurate predictions will share a total prize pool of $80,000.

Confidence in the albiceleste team is not limited to Argentina. In Mexico, 52% of participants predicted an Argentine victory, while 41% leaned toward Spain. In Uruguay, the figures were 50% and 41%, respectively.

In Brazil—Argentina's archrival in South America—the prediction race became more balanced, with 46% of participants placing their faith in Argentina and a similar percentage backing Spain. Eight percent thought the final would be decided by a penalty shootout.

These prediction results reflect the strong confidence of Argentine fans following the team's impressive journey in the 2026 World Cup. The reigning world champions are aiming for a second consecutive title, while Spain seeks to claim the world championship for the second time in history.

According to Mercado Pago, the match with the most accurately predicted outcome this year was Spain's 2-1 victory over Belgium in the quarterfinals, with 38% of players making the correct choice. Conversely, only 148 people correctly predicted Canada's 6-0 win over Qatar—the most surprising result of the 2026 World Cup.