Spain vs Argentina Score Prediction (2026 World Cup Final): Many Goals Expected

The 2026 World Cup final marks a historic showdown as the reigning European champions (Spain) face the reigning South American champions and world champions (Argentina) for global supremacy. This is a clash between a team with a record-breaking defense and a squad with a comeback DNA led by genius Lionel Messi.

Spain enters the final match after a convincing 2-0 victory over tournament favorite France in the semifinals. "La Roja's" greatest strength in this year's tournament lies in their extremely solid defensive system under coach Luis de la Fuente. They made tournament history by becoming the first team to keep clean sheets in six matches at a single World Cup. Before Belgium scored against them in the quarterfinals, goalkeeper Unai Simón had an unbeaten streak of 649 consecutive minutes. In midfield, Rodri is a strong candidate for the World Cup Golden Ball, breaking the tournament record with 655 successful passes and exceptional interception ability. The mobility of Fabián Ruiz and Pedri gives Spain overwhelming control of the game, ready to stifle any opponent's attacking plans.

On the other side of the pitch, Argentina's title defense journey has been a thrilling film of incredible comebacks. Lionel Scaloni's team reached the final after defeating England 2-1 in the semifinals, despite trailing until the 85th minute. Earlier in the round of 16, they also staged a comeback, scoring three goals in the final 12 minutes to beat Egypt. The biggest pillar of "Albiceleste" is none other than Lionel Messi, who is having the most explosive tournament of his career. After scoring a hat-trick on the opening day and breaking Miroslav Klose's World Cup goal record, Messi shifted to a playmaking role, assisting both goals against England, officially becoming the sole top assist provider in World Cup history with 12 assists.

The final promises to be extremely tense in the midfield area, where Argentina's muscular midfield trio of Alexis Mac Allister, Rodrigo De Paul, and Enzo Fernández will have to find ways to disrupt Spain's system. Additionally, both teams' knack for late goals (Spain with decisive late strikes against Portugal and Belgium; Argentina with constant last-minute comebacks) signals a highly dramatic scenario until the final seconds.

Opta supercomputer prediction

According to in-depth data analysis and simulation algorithms from Opta's supercomputer, the chances of victory for both teams in regular 90 minutes are extremely balanced. Argentina is given a slight edge with a 45.0% win probability. Meanwhile, Spain's chance of winning the title in regular time is 29.0%, and the likelihood of the match ending in a draw and going to extra time is 26.0%.

Head-to-head history between Spain and Argentina

In the past, the two teams have never met in an official match at a major tournament since the 21st century; all encounters have been friendlies. In their most recent meeting in 2018, Spain demolished Argentina 6-1. However, Argentina has a good record on American soil, having just won the 2024 Copa America in the same country.

In the current FIFA rankings, Argentina sits at the top of the world, followed by Spain in second place.

Expected lineups for Spain and Argentina

Spain (4-2-3-1): Simon; Porro, Cubarsi, Laporte, Cucurella; Rodri, Ruiz; Yamal, Olmo, Baena; Oyarzabal.

Argentina (4-4-2): E. Martinez; Montiel, Romero, L. Martinez, Tagliafico; De Paul, Paredes, Fernandez, Mac Allister; Messi, Alvarez.