Inviting Guardiola to coach Italy? From a maxed-out team to a rebuilding project—it's nothing but wishful thinking.

Recently, Italy's Sky Sport reported a major piece of news. The outlet stated that over the past weekend, Italian Football Federation technical director Paolo Maldini and advisor Leonardo met with Pep Guardiola in Barcelona. According to reports, the meeting lasted the entire weekend, during which Maldini and Leonardo presented Guardiola with a detailed plan for the reconstruction of the Italian national team. Italian Football Federation President Giovanni Malagò later confirmed to Sky Sport: "Besides Mancini and Pirlo, there could be other candidates."

Guardiola? There's no need to introduce this big name—he is an absolute superstar in the world of football coaching, a true "trophy collector."

In his first season at Barcelona, he achieved the historic sextuple. Over four seasons, he recorded 179 wins, 47 draws, and 21 losses in 247 matches, with a win rate of 72.47%, securing 14 trophies. At Bayern Munich, he won three consecutive Bundesliga titles in three seasons. In ten years in the Premier League, he built a dynasty at Manchester City, winning 20 trophies, including six Premier League titles and one four-peat.

But all three of these teams share one characteristic: they were essentially "maxed-out squads." Barcelona and Bayern are top-tier giants in their respective leagues—Barcelona faces only Real Madrid as a serious rival in La Liga, while in the Bundesliga, Bayern is the undisputed king, with a league title being the bare minimum. Although Manchester City lacked "seniority" in the Premier League, they had the backing of the Abu Dhabi United Group's checkbook, allowing them to buy their way to a maxed-out squad, spending €2.05 billion on the roster over ten years.

The Italian national team, on the other hand, is precisely the kind of "rebuilding project" he has never attempted.

Italian football is currently at its lowest point in history. Spalletti was sacked after a 3-0 defeat to Norway at the start of the 2026 World Cup qualifiers; Gattuso took over briefly but also left, and Italy has now missed three consecutive World Cup finals. This is hard to accept for a traditional powerhouse that has won the World Cup four times.

Does Italy have enough football talent for him to build a "maxed-out squad"? The answer is clearly no.

According to statistics, last season's Serie A saw only 3.9% of playing time for domestic U21 players, tied with the Premier League for the worst in Europe. Football executive Adriano Galliani bluntly stated: "Serie A has long become a 'transit league,' with only 30% of players qualifying for the national team."

So, which top Italian players are available for Guardiola to choose from?

In goal, there is Gianluigi Donnarumma, currently Manchester City's starting goalkeeper, who has worked with Guardiola. In defense, there is Alessandro Bastoni, Inter's defensive core, currently valued at €65 million. Also, Riccardo Calafiori, who plays for Arsenal, and Federico Dimarco and Alessandro Buongiorno, who are also solid players.

In midfield, there is Sandro Tonali, valued at €80 million, who recently joined Tottenham for €108 million. And Nicolò Barella, worth €50 million, is also a quality player. The forward line, however, is much weaker, lacking a reliable finisher.

Guardiola's decision to leave Manchester City after ten years doesn't rule out the possibility that he wants a new challenge. For example, like Carlo Ancelotti, he might try coaching a national team and venture into uncharted territory, such as the European Championship or the World Cup.

But there is a fundamental difference between national teams and clubs. At a club, you have the financial freedom to buy whoever you want and quickly build your ideal squad. Need a midfielder who can control the ball? Buy Kevin De Bruyne. Need more attacking firepower? Buy Erling Haaland! And if they don't fit, buy more until it works. But with a national team, you can only rely on development, which requires a long-term plan and sometimes a bit of luck. Because geniuses are not cultivated; they are discovered.

We often hear about "golden generations," like the one led by Luís Figo and Rui Costa. They captivated fans with their artistic "Latin style" but never won a major tournament with the senior national team, finally finishing as runners-up in the 2004 European Championship at home. After finishing fourth in the 2006 World Cup, the era ended when Figo and other key players retired. Then came the current Portuguese national team, with talent emerging across all lines, but they were eliminated in the Round of 16 at the most recent World Cup.

The Brazil that Ancelotti chose has never lacked football talent, but the quality of the national team has clearly declined compared to the past. We won't even mention ancient legends like Pelé, Garrincha, and Sócrates—compared to the "3R" era we are familiar with, the gap is more than one level. Since Ronaldo, Brazil has not produced a truly world-class center-forward.

As for Italian football today, we don't see a golden age of talent across all lines. Missing three consecutive World Cups is no coincidence; it's a structural flaw in the league system. And in four years, these players in their prime will no longer be young. Who will carry the national team's backbone? This is a question every potential new coach of Italy must consider. Therefore, if the Italian Football Federation needs to implement a long-term rebuilding plan, Guardiola is certainly not the right choice—a local coach would be.

In fact, according to La Gazzetta dello Sport, the coaching shortlist also includes local coaches like Andrea Pirlo, Antonio Conte, and Roberto Mancini. Pirlo is the first choice of Maldini and Leonardo, representing the "young and already accomplished" route; Conte represents the "quick results" safe option; Mancini's football philosophy aligns with Maldini's ideas.

Guardiola, however, faces multiple obstacles. According to Il Messaggero, Guardiola's salary demands far exceed the federation's budget for other candidates. But more crucially, it's a matter of personal willingness—since leaving Manchester City, Guardiola has repeatedly stated: "I need a break and want to experience life outside football."

Thus, Italy's "Guardiola dream" is more like a one-sided, all-in gamble. The bet is whether this tactical master, who has never coached a national team, is willing to abandon his obsession with "maxed-out squads" and take over a fallen giant that has missed three consecutive World Cups, while still producing quick results.

Malagò said: "No one can deny that if Guardiola were to become the head coach of the Italian national team, it would be a very significant move." But the word "significant" is still a long way from "about to happen."