Without the 2026 World Cup, how will Chinese football face the future?

Reporter Chen Yong reports From 2006 to 2026, the national football team has missed the World Cup for six consecutive times, and the last time it qualified was 24 years ago. Another farewell, there is the inevitability of strength, but also the regret of technical and tactical level. It's just that after the feather again, how should we face the future this time?

Victory or defeat will fall into the traffic carnival, and then build an illusory and extreme emotional atmosphere, but for the decision-makers and practitioners of Chinese football, what is needed is to face rationally, think deeply and then move forward steadfastly, and test patience and perseverance.

The strength of the national football team is still in a downward trend

After missing the 2026 World Cup, there is more analysis of the coach, and Ivan does need to bear some responsibility, but the general view is that the round of 18 has not yet begun, and the outcome is predestined.

At the end of the 2019 Asian Cup, we pointed out through the analysis of players of all ages that in the next 10 years, the national football team will most likely be in a downward channel, and it will take 10 to 15 years to stop falling and rebound. More precisely, according to the current analysis of Chinese football at various ages, the overall strength of the 85 generation is not bad, and the 89 generation began to decline, from the 91 age group to the 03 age group, the overall strength of the players is at a low level, and its Chinese youth and national youth have not participated in the World Youth Championship and the World Youth Championship for 20 years.

In the 2018 World Preliminaries, the national football team was the main game of the 85 and 89 generations, and in 2022, it was the main game of the 89 and 93 generations, and at that time, the average age of the national football team was about 30 years old. This time, the national football team is normally the main player of the 93 to 97 generation, and with the use of a number of post-00 young players in Ivan, the average age has declined, and the average age of the starting lineup (calculated in natural years) in this game against Indonesia is 28.1 years old, and 27.3 years old if the goalkeeper is not counted.

Theoretically, the next World Preliminary Tournament should be dominated by players from the 97 to 01 age group, and the cruel reality is that the 00 and 02 age group national youth have missed the Asian Youth Championship finals for two consecutive years, and the 01-year-old national youth has missed the Asian Youth Championship finals. After that, the 04-year-old national youth returned to the Asian Junior Championship finals, and the 03 and 05-year-old national youth also returned to the finals and reached the quarterfinals.

During the World Preliminaries, the national football team is still in a downward channel in terms of strength, and theoretically, it is difficult to substantially improve the strength of the next session, which is an objective reality that must be faced.

The football revitalization project has only just begun

Many fans may say that 4 years ago, 8 years ago or 12 years ago, the national football team missed the summary draft of the World Cup, and the media can use it again this time. But in fact, the background is different every time.

The World Preliminary Tournament was held in the context of China's football anti-corruption, anti-gambling and comprehensive reconstruction, and during the round of 18, the national level also held a football revitalization conference and unprecedented measures.

The crux of the matter is that sports, especially football, which can be played by up to 11 players, are characterized by very long cycles. Take Evergrande Football School as an example, they were founded in 2012, officially opened youth training in 2013, the real training of players is from the 01 age group, 12 years later, Evergrande Football School players began to emerge in the professional league, but the club has disappeared from the map of the Chinese professional league, the cultivation has achieved initial results, the cultivator is not human.

As for the national football team, theoretically 95-year-old players should play, but the 95-year-old youth training work began more than 20 years ago - the success or failure of youth training 20 years ago is now truly reflected at the national football level.

The anti-corruption, anti-gambling and football revitalization of Chinese football began in 2022, and the executive meeting of the State Council held on December 16, 2024 to study and promote the revitalization and development of football. In the revitalization of Chinese football, youth football is placed at the core, but the Chinese Youth Championship, which began in 2022, is only the fourth year this year, and the professional club echelon league, which will be fully restored in 2023, is only the third year this year.

At the national team level, the first direction is to refuse to gamble; The second is to strengthen management and give full play to the ceiling level of the national football team as much as possible. At present, the management system of the entire national brand has been comprehensively sorted out and planned since the second half of last year, and the construction of national brands at all levels is also advancing in an orderly manner. In addition, whether the national brands at all levels can reach the upper limit, the head coach is very important, which is related to tactics, lineups and presence, etc., and this is precisely where the top 18 matches need to be summarized in depth.

You can't toss, you have to be stable and more persistent

It is necessary to discuss the management, selection of coaches, tactics and other aspects of the national brand, but at the overall strategy or decision-making level, we must maintain enough rationality and patience.

One of the key points is that it is necessary to avoid the phenomenon of seeking quick success and quick benefits of the new policy when the national football team loses. This is the biggest problem and drawback in the development of Chinese football, almost every time after the defeat in the world preliminaries, it will be tossed, such as the national team playing in the league, the U23 policy, the foreign aid policy, the league to make way for the national team, etc., some new policies are contradictory, such as the increase and decrease of the Football Association department, and the increase and decrease of the number of foreign aid.

On the premise of not tossing, it is more rational and patient to comprehensively summarize and sort out in order not to repeat the mistakes of the past in the next World Preliminaries. For example, the summary of the selection of coaches, including the direction, standards and procedures of the selection of coaches, but also whether the funds for the selection of coaches are sufficient, a good coach naturally needs a high salary, and this money cannot be saved, so it is very necessary to summarize.

Of course, it is more important to continue to adhere to the strategic direction of youth football as the core, and continue to create a better environment for the growth of young people.

It should also be noted that although the reform that began in 2022 is only in its fourth year, the situation has begun to improve: at the national team level, the mental outlook is no longer criticized by fans; The U22 national team has also performed well from last year to this year; 05 Although the national youth missed the World Youth Championships, they are actually only one step away from qualifying, and the penalty penalty is actually caused by the pressure accumulated in 20 years of missing the World Youth Championships, and this layer of window paper is on the verge of being pierced; Although the 08 national youth also missed the World Junior Championships, the group opponent was the final champion and runner-up and only lost by one goal, which was achieved in the case of some problems in team management; 09 Guoshao defeated Saudi Arabia and Australia in a row in the Hohhot Four Nations Tournament, especially the 5-2 victory against Australia, although the team is still insufficient, but the improvement is very obvious. Of course, the improvement of youth work is also closely related to the reform of Chinese football in 2015.

Therefore, the national football team was defeated this time, the sky has not fallen, there is no need to be anxious, there is no need to toss, just follow the established strategy, take the youth as the core, strengthen the management of the national brand, restore the health of the league, strengthen supervision, and at the same time strive for excellence and comprehensively improve decision-making and operational efficiency.

Facing the future, such as the 2030 World Preliminaries, including the more distant future, the Football Association needs to take precautions, and it can even be said that the work done during this defeat may only be effective in the 2034 World Preliminaries and the 2038 World Preliminaries. On the other hand, if there is no comprehensive planning and coordination at this time, that joke may come true: 4 years from now, 8 years from now, 12 years from now, just turn out today's draft and change it.

Unify thinking and cultivate key positions

In this round of 18, the biggest difficulty of the national football team lies in the back waist, especially Ivan's use of 442 diamond-shaped positions, and the need for excellent single back players, Wang Shangyuan is reluctant to make it difficult. What is worrying is that the problem of the back waist is by no means unique to the national football team, and it can be seen from the situation of the national brands at all levels that in the past ten years, from the age of 95 to the age of 08 today, there is a lack of excellent back waist.

To be precise, with Zheng Zhi, Hao Junmin and Wu Xi retiring or fading out, the national football team suffered from the stubborn disease of "waist weakness". Without an excellent back, the transition between attack and defense will be in trouble, and in the round of 18, the possession rate of the national football team in many games is below 30%.

In addition to the back, the national football team also has a lack of fullbacks this time, the three fullbacks recruited this time, Hu Hetao is the main wingback, Li Lei and Yang Zexiang have limited opportunities to play in the league, Wang Shiqin is actually more suitable for the position of fullback, and the ability to assist is limited. In addition, there are also problems with the 08 national youth and 09 national youth fullbacks, the 08 national youth left-back is a cameo for the central defender, and the 09 national youth used three players in the right-back position in the three games of the Hohhot Four Nations Tournament.

In contrast, the national football team has more talents in the central defender and wing-back/winger positions, and the center forward position has also had some good young players in recent years.

Tsuyoshi Ono, the former chairman of the technical committee of the Japan Football Association and former coach of the Greentown youth team, talked about a case in which Japanese football has been tracking the World Cup and the European Championship for a long time, comprehensively analyzing the performance of the world's strongest teams and the Japanese team itself, and proposing improvement plans. Many years ago, the Japanese Football Association put forward the concept of cultivating tall central defenders and comprehensively promoted it to the youth training system, and since then, the tall central defenders of Japanese football have continued to emerge.

In fact, Zheng Zhi, Hao Junmin and Wu Xi all gradually played from the position of forward or full-back to the back midfield, and Wang Shangyuan also played as a striker at the earliest. At present, the Football Association has restarted the coaches' conference, and it is also necessary to implement a special training plan for the positions of the back and fullback, the selection of materials is on the one hand, the training is on the other hand, and the multi-position compound training model of players is an effective solution to improve their multi-position technical ability and game awareness, so that the problems of the back and full-back have the opportunity to be solved.

It is absolutely necessary to have a comprehensive discussion and consensus on such a development plan at seminars such as coaches' conferences and various youth competitions, because only when the youth coaches have a deep understanding and put it into action can they achieve certain results in the future.

Promote overseas visits and enhance international visits

In addition to strengthening the special plan for the training of key position players, a more important special plan is to accelerate overseas study and international exchanges, and there are a variety of programs that can be implemented:

First, further support for young players to stay abroad. 08 national youth center, scored the first goal of the 08 age group of the Super League, Wei Xiangxin previously conducted a trial to stay in the United States, which is a useful exploration, limited to the level, this road is very difficult, if you can play a stable game in the Super League, of course, there is no need to stay in the United States in order to stay in the United States.

Second, we will continue to promote the overseas training of national brands at all levels. This is also the established strategy of the Football Association, since it is impossible to stay in the United States to gain a firm foothold, then it is also one of the effective ways to constantly play against high-level teams in Japan, South Korea and Europe. In addition, the U23 national team actually bears the heavy responsibility of the national second team, and it is also very important to strengthen their international exchanges, the current U23 national team is the 03 age group, followed by the 05 age group, but the 07 age group no longer sets the U23 Asian Cup, only the Olympic age group has the U23 Asian Cup, however, the Football Association still needs to maintain a stable U23 system and give comprehensive international event guarantees, and truly play the role of the "national second team".

Third, comprehensively promote the holding of various international invitational tournaments in China. The previous Yancheng Four Nations Tournament (U22 national team) and Hohhot Four Nations Tournament (U16 national youth) The quality of the competition was very high, the Panda Cup, the "Silk Road Huashan Cup" Weinan International Football Invitational Tournament has been restarted, and the "Kashgar Cup" is about to be held for the second time, with a total of 12 teams from the five Central Asian countries, Russia, Taishan, Shenhua, Guoan, Meizhou and Xinjiang. It is suggested that the Football Association negotiate with Taishan, Guoan and other clubs to resume the "Weifang Cup" and strengthen the "Sinobo Guoan Cup", of course, including the Jinshan Cup, the Origin Cup and other competitions. The Football Association has made a comprehensive plan for these international youth football invitational tournaments, provided comprehensive financial support and team support, and comprehensively improved the quality of youth competitions through such frequent international invitational tournaments.

Fourth, promote more youth teams to go abroad for training, and take it as one of the standards for the youth training evaluation of professional clubs and the star rating of amateur youth training institutions.

All of this is aimed at strengthening international exchanges, improving the quality of youth competitions, and then improving the level of young players, in fact, these are also the few ways to improve the level of Chinese youth players in a short period of time.