In the 25124th football win-loss lottery, the Seagulls dominate at home, Spurs face no worries at home, and Manchester City exits unscathed.

1 BrightonVSFulham

The home team has been quite wild over the past two seasons, and overall, their strength is above that of the away team. Additionally, as it’s the first home game of the season, it would be a shame not to start with a win.

The data supports the home team, and this backing shouldn’t be too weak, but looking at the previous encounters over the last two seasons, the home team hasn’t gained much advantage and has been at a disadvantage; the away team’s quick counter-attacks are indeed quite adept.

First draw, then home win

2 SunderlandVSWest Ham

The home team has invested significantly since their promotion, somewhat akin to Nottingham, but from the warm-up matches, it’s clear that cohesion has become a major issue. It depends on whether the coach can be pragmatic; if they can play cautiously, there might be some opportunities.

The away team, on the other hand, lacks resilience, and their defense is quite unstable; based on warm-up performances, they seem to perform slightly better than the home team.

The data gives the away team some support, but this backing isn’t particularly convincing for a traditional mid-table Premier League team facing a newly promoted side. Caution is advised.

First away win, then home win

3 SpursVSBurnley

The home team’s match against German teams felt a bit unfamiliar, but they are indeed capable. Facing a newly promoted team, a strong start is essential. However, after having played one match, there’s uncertainty about their physical condition and whether it might affect them.

The data also provides significant support for the home team.

Home win

4 WolvesVSManchester City

In terms of strength, there isn't much comparison between the two sides. After a summer transfer window, the away team seems to have nearly completed its youth transition. Meanwhile, the home team hasn’t changed much and hasn’t seen a significant increase in strength.

The data gives substantial support to the away team, but this backing isn’t particularly strong, as cohesion remains an issue for the away side.

First away win, then draw

5 StuttgartVSBayern

The away team’s biggest issue last season was an unstable defense. With adjustments made during the summer transfer window and a year of adapting to new tactics, the away team is expected to improve. However, their strength hasn’t shown significant improvement in the summer window.

The data supports the away team, but this backing is somewhat limited; faith in their attacking capabilities is there, but the defense remains uncertain.

First away win, then draw

6 MallorcaVSBarcelona

The data provides some support for the away team, but this backing seems a bit conservative for the first match. The away team needs to establish their position in the league from the start; otherwise, as matches accumulate, it could become problematic.

Away win

7 AlavésVSLevante

The home team had a decent home performance last season, starting strong at home, while the away team, being newly promoted, still needs to adapt. However, based on past encounters, their tenacity has been quite impressive.

The data supports the home team, and this backing feels quite respectable for a newly promoted side.

Home win

8 ValenciaVSReal Sociedad

The home team had a solid home record last season. In contrast, the away team had some disappointing moments last season, but they have shown good form in friendly matches.

The data doesn’t lean too heavily in one direction but tends to favor the home team. This isn’t a good sign for the away team.

First home win, then away win

9 MonacoVSLe Havre

There is a significant gap in strength between the two sides, and the data provides substantial support for the home team. In terms of strength, the home team should face no issues.

Home win

10 NiceVSToulouse

In terms of strength, there isn’t much comparison, but note that the away team often performed well last season. In their first match, the home team will naturally aim for a decisive victory.

The data supports the home team, but this backing is quite minimal. It isn’t very convincing, and given the home team’s stature, they might be burdened by European competitions.

First home win, then draw

11 ElitesVSFeyenoord

From the first round of matches, it’s clear that both sides are not performing well. The home team’s defense appears vulnerable in the Eredivisie, and facing a strong Eredivisie opponent, they likely won’t have much resistance.

The data also gives substantial support to the away team, but this backing feels conservative.

Away win

12 HeraclesVSMei Heng

The home team is weaker than the away team. In their first match, the home team lost 0-4 to Utrecht, while the away team won 5-0 against Elites at home, reflecting the state and strength of both teams.

The data doesn’t show a clear bias but does provide some support for the away team, albeit not strong.

First away win, then draw

13 GroningenVSHeerenveen

The home team is weaker than the away team. In their first match, the home team lost 1-4 to Alkmaar, while the away team drew 1-1 with Volendam. It’s evident that the home team has defensive issues, while the away team has some attacking problems.

The data supports the home team, but this backing is somewhat weak and lacks substantial data.

First home win, then away win

14 GuimarãesVSEstoril

Home win