Performance in the warm-up tournaments clearly has a major impact on bookmakers’ evaluation of players’ championship chances. For example, despite being seeded 4th, Taylor Fritz ranks only 7th in the odds to win.
The current US Open runner-up ranks below lower-ranked players such as Jack Draper and Ben Shelton. His winning odds are just 25/1 (bet 1 to win 25), while Draper’s are 18/1 and Shelton’s 20/1. Alexander Zverev, ranked world No. 3 and recently a semifinalist at Cincinnati Masters, also holds 18/1 odds.
World No. 1 Jannik Sinner (11/10) is currently considered by bookmakers as the top favorite for the men’s singles title, ahead of Carlos Alcaraz (13/8). This pair clearly dominates the men’s tennis field, while Novak Djokovic—who has not competed since Wimbledon—has odds of only 12/1.
According to William Hill, the men’s singles title battle will be a head-to-head race between Alcaraz and Sinner.
Sinner and Alcaraz have met in the last two Grand Slam finals. Alcaraz staged an impressive comeback to win Roland Garros, then Sinner defeated Alcaraz in four sets at the All England Club. Returning to the hard courts favored at the US Open, it is difficult to discount Sinner as long as he maintains his condition throughout the two weeks at Flushing Meadows.
Recent strong form has helped Iga Swiatek (5/2) surpass top seed and defending champion Sabalenka (3/1) to become the leading contender for the women’s singles title. Following her is home favorite Coco Gauff (7/1).
Top 10 contenders for the men’s singles title: Jannik Sinner (11/10), Carlos Alcaraz (13/8), Novak Djokovic (12/1), Alexander Zverev (18/1), Jack Draper (18/1), Ben Shelton (20/1), Taylor Fritz (25/1), Daniil Medvedev (50/1), Alex de Minaur (66/1), Holger Rune (80/1)
Top 10 contenders for the women’s singles title: Iga Swiatek (5/2), Aryna Sabalenka (3/1), Coco Gauff (7/1), Elena Rybakina (11/1), Mirra Andreeva (11/1), Naomi Osaka (16/1), Victoria Mboko (20/1), Madison Keys (20/1), Amanda Anisimova (22/1), Emma Raducanu (25/1).