A major upset is about to emerge at the Hong Kong 250 tournament with odds heavily favoring a shock; Shang Juncheng takes on the fifth seed Sonego in a thrilling showdown.

Which tour stop is the focus of attention today? It’s finally time for the Hong Kong 250 tournament!

Sabalenka’s shocking early exit in Brisbane and Wang Xinyu’s breakthrough in Auckland, where she ended a six-match singles losing streak and won two matches in a row, have quickly drawn fan and online attention. Now, everyone’s gaze is collectively shifting to Hong Kong, China.

The sudden intense spotlight on the Hong Kong 250 is largely due to Shang Juncheng!

Of course, the current focus on Shang Juncheng isn’t because his elder brother Wu Yibing lost to Rublev, leaving him without a close ally, but because he is about to face the tournament’s fifth seed, Sonego.

Data shows that Shang Juncheng and Sonego have never faced each other before, making this an entirely fresh encounter; however, this fact alone does not fully explain the strong interest.

The high enthusiasm for this headline match comes from curiosity about whether the bookmakers’ odds will prove accurate or if an unexpected upset will occur.

Shang Juncheng is currently ranked 406th in the world, while Sonego holds the 39th spot. Based on rankings, Sonego should be favored, yet bookmakers offer odds of 1 to 1.61 for Shang Juncheng, which surpass Sonego’s 1 to 2.3 odds. This essentially signals that the biggest upset at the Hong Kong 250 will be delivered by the young Chinese player Shang Juncheng.

Many find the bookmakers’ approach baffling, openly stating it’s the first time they’ve seen such strong odds backing a low-ranked player while dismissing a higher-ranked opponent, saying, “Even if they want to create hype, it should at least seem reasonable.”

Numerous fans and netizens call the bookmakers’ odds overly bold, citing simple reasons for their skepticism.

Although the 20-year-old Shang Juncheng has an age advantage over 30-year-old Sonego, his overall performance since recovering from injury last year in the Chinese season was quite average, nowhere near the impressive run he showed at the 2024 Chengdu 250, where he reached the final and won the title against Musetti.

Under these circumstances, the strong odds favoring Shang Juncheng over Sonego naturally puzzle many.

While Sonego didn’t claim any titles last year, reaching the Australian Open quarterfinals clearly demonstrates the Italian’s considerable skill level.

Some supporters of Shang Juncheng argue that Sonego’s strength lies primarily on clay courts.

However, looking at the Italian’s record, two of his four tour titles came on hard courts, with the other two on grass and clay respectively, indicating that Sonego is a well-rounded player with versatile abilities.

Moreover, Sonego’s doubles skills are notable; although his two doubles titles were on clay, doubles players tend to develop flexible tactics and can cover weaknesses at the net, which arguably increases the Italian’s threat level and adds another challenge for Shang Juncheng.

Those backing Shang Juncheng have solid reasons, pointing out that bookmakers are experienced and wouldn’t bet on an upset without good cause, implying there must be insider insights unknown to the public—otherwise, why would they risk it and potentially face bankruptcy?

Additionally, some believe the favorable odds for Shang Juncheng are justified partly because Hong Kong has been a lucky venue for him.

When Shang’s performances in other tournaments were average, he consistently showed a different level of tennis in Hong Kong, reaching the semifinals of this 250 event two years in a row.

In his first-round match, Shang Juncheng comfortably defeated the world No. 66, Komesana, with two 6-4 sets, showing good form. If he can beat a player ranked 66th while being ranked 406th, why couldn’t he also upset the world No. 39 Sonego? Some humorously suggest this confidence is exactly why bookmakers are daring to skew the odds in Shang’s favor!

This highly anticipated match will start at 1:30 PM Beijing time this year. Whether the bookmakers’ gamble on Shang Juncheng to shock the fifth seed Sonego pays off or the Italian player ultimately proves the odds wrong is eagerly awaited!(Source: Tennis Home, Author: Moon River’s Starry Sky)