Australian Open draw released, many intense first-round battles, Djokovic and Sinner share the same half

15/01/2026 20:00:00 sport

Got the date mixed up, thought today was Wednesday. So, before any urgency, the draw appeared everywhere.

During the Djokovic/Tiafoe exhibition, Djokovic mentioned he hadn't looked at the draw yet, and the host laughed, saying, "Relax, you two are not in the same half." I thought it was just a joke.

Matchups of the top 16 seeds

Round of 16 section: Alcaraz (1) vs. Fokina (16)

In this group, Korda could pose a challenge to Alcaraz. They might meet in the third round, assuming Korda can defeat Moutet (32) in the second round.

Alcaraz’s potential fourth-round opponent could be Paul (19) or Fokina (14).

Section 2/8: Bublik (10) vs. Deminor (6)

Bublikhas a tough draw, facing Brooksby in the first round. Both played well last year, so a slight slip could lead to Bublik’s exit. Brooksby is still improving, while Bublik might have peaked. Even if Bublik advances through the first two rounds, he faces Italian player Cobolli (20) in the third round, which is also challenging.

Deminorfaces Berrettini in the first round. It seems tough but actually isn’t. Berrettini currently poses no threat to top 20 players, especially on hard courts. Tiafoe hasn’t played for three months and can’t trouble Deminor. Deminor should have little trouble in the first three rounds. If he meets Bublik in the fourth round, it means Bublik overcame difficulties in the earlier rounds, making it uncertain.

In summary, Alcaraz’s quarterfinal opponent is uncertain. Deminor, Bublik, or Cobolli could all be possibilities.

Section 3/8: Zverev (3) vs. Rublev (13)

I thinkZverevhas no guaranteed wins regardless of the opponent. What do you think? His first-round match against Diallo is already a big challenge. Potential opponents like Popyrin and Norrie, both Masters champions, increase the chance of an upset against Zverev.

Zhang Zhizhen’s first-round opponent isF. Cerundolo(18). On hard courts, Zhang Zhizhen has a decent chance. Rublev (13) is unpredictable; his first-round test is against Italian player Nardi.

Section 4/8: Medvedev (11) vs. Alcaraz (7)

Medvedev(11) has a favorable draw. First round against De Jong, second round likely against Kecmanovic. Third round might be against Majchrzak/Lindgren (24). With his form improving, Medvedev should perform steadily.

Alcaraz(7) will likely face Linner in the third round, which will be a significant challenge.

Therefore, the probability of a quarterfinal between Zverev and Alcaraz in section 2/4 is quite low.

In any case, Alcaraz has a strong chance to reach the final from the top half. Potential challengers to Alcaraz might be eliminated in earlier rounds.

Below are the four round of 16 sections in the bottom half of the draw.

Section 5/8: Musetti (5) vs. Fritz (9)

Musetti (5)faces Belgian player Coric in the first round, likely Sonego in the second. Third round could be Dimitrov/Mahut/Sakkari. Dimitrov faces Mahut in the first round; both are returning from injury, so whoever is in better shape will win. Sakkari is in good form, undefeated in three United Cup matches.

Fritz (9)is currently in a slight slump, reportedly injured. Thus, Lehecka (17) has a chance to reach the fourth round in this section.

Section 6/8: Menšík (16) vs. Djokovic (4)

Menšík (16)will likely face either Hurkacz or Berrettini in the third round. These two meet in the first round and are worth watching. Both performed well at the United Cup. No matter who Menšík faces, he has no guaranteed win.

Djokovic (4)faces Martinez in the first round. He is a resilient player with hidden talent. In yesterday’s “one-point victory” match, he surprisingly used Bublik’s signature serve tactic to eliminate Bublik!! [facepalm][facepalm] The second round might be against Altmaier. The third round opponent is likely Nakashima (27), with Vanderschoot, Shang Juncheng, or Agut as alternatives.

Shang Juncheng’s draw is average; playing Agut in the first round won’t be easy and requires great patience and focus.

Djokovic may face Menšík or Hurkacz/Berrettini in the fourth round. Whoever it is, it will be a big test for Djokovic. However, as long as Djokovic’s form is above 70%, he has a chance to win.

Section 7/8: Shelton (8) vs. Ruud (12)

Shelton (8)faces Ambel in the first round, which is somewhat challenging. The second round could be against veteran Monfils. The third round might be against Vasallo (30), who plays similarly.

Ruud (12)has been average at the United Cup and hasn’t shaken off his slump (time for a coaching change). But his draw is favorable, with almost no challenges in the first two rounds. The third round opponent is likely Shapovalov (21). Bu Yunchao’s first-round match against Shapovalov offers limited chances.

Section 8/8: Khachanov (15) vs. Sinner (2)

Khachanov (15)faces Michelson, which is quite a test. Possible next opponents include O’Connell, Pericard (22), and Darderi, all strong servers. This draw challenges Khachanov’s return and defense skills.

Sinner’s draw is not difficult, reflecting his strength. First round against Gaston, second round possibly Dakworth. The third-round opponent is interesting:

Fonseca (28)faces Spizzirri (0:1) in the first round, and possibly Wu Yibing in the second. Wu Yibing has already played three qualifying matches and should beat Nardi in the first round.

So, there is a possibility: Wu Yibing faces Nardi in the first round, Fonseca in the second, and Sinner in the third... then nothing follows. If that happens, Wu Yibing would be impressive.