Detailed Analysis of Djokovic’s Australian Open Draw: What Challenges Lie Ahead on the Road to the Title?

Novak Djokovic will pursue his historic 25th Grand Slam championship at the 2026 Australian Open. The Serbian legend has a special affinity for Melbourne, where he has claimed 10 of his 24 major titles. The tournament is scheduled from January 18 to February 1.

Djokovic’s Australian Open record is 99 wins against 10 losses. If he wins his opening match this year, he will reach at least 100 wins in three of the four Grand Slams, leaving only the US Open without that milestone.

In 2025, Djokovic reached the semifinals of all four Grand Slam events, once again proving that “age is just a number.” As he embarks on another potentially historic campaign, here is a look at his possible path to the final at the 2026 Australian Open:

First Round Opponent — Pedro Martínez

Djokovic will start his Australian Open journey facing Pedro Martínez. Martínez won the Bangalore Challenger early in the 2026 season and holds a 5-5 record in Melbourne, with his best showing reaching the third round in 2021. However, Djokovic has not lost in the first round of a Grand Slam in 20 years, so he is still heavily favored to advance.

Second Round Opponent — Altmaier / Qualifier

In the second round, Djokovic will face either Altmaier or a qualifier (or a lucky loser). Altmaier has never won a main draw match at a Grand Slam nor in the 2026 ATP tour so far. If the opponent is a qualifier or lucky loser, their ranking will likely be outside the top 90, making Djokovic’s chance of defeat in this round extremely low.

Potential Third Round Opponent — Brandon Nakashima / Roberto Bautista Agut

The most probable third-round opponent is Brandon Nakashima. The American was runner-up at the 2026 Brisbane International, losing to Medvedev. This will be their first meeting and won’t be an easy challenge for Djokovic. If Nakashima exits early, Bautista Agut or Van de Zandschulp could also reach the third round, though both have shown inconsistent form over the past year.

In head-to-head records, Djokovic leads Bautista Agut 9-3 and is tied 1-1 with Van de Zandschulp. Despite these possible threats, Djokovic is still widely expected to advance further.

Potential Fourth Round Opponent — Menšík / Hurkacz

From this round onward, the competition becomes truly tough. Menšík defeated Djokovic in the 2025 Miami Masters final, while Hurkacz has been in excellent form since returning from injury. He helped his team win the United Cup, boasting a 4-1 singles record, including wins over top-ten players Fritz and Zverev.

Although Djokovic holds an 8-0 record against Hurkacz, the latter’s current form is threatening enough to possibly earn his first victory in their rivalry.

Possible Quarterfinal Opponents — Fritz / Musetti

Djokovic’s combined record against Fritz and Musetti is 20 wins to 1 loss, so he does not fear facing either in the quarterfinals. Fritz is currently struggling with injuries, while Musetti, who finished runner-up at the season-opening Hong Kong event, is the more likely contender to reach this stage.

If both exit early, players like Tsitsipas, Dimitrov, Lehecka, or Wawrinka could become Djokovic’s quarterfinal opponents. Tsitsipas lost to Djokovic in the Australian Open final three years ago and generally performs well in Melbourne.

Potential Semifinal Opponent — Jannik Sinner

Djokovic is likely to face two-time defending champion Jannik Sinner in the semifinals. The Italian has reached the final in five of the last Grand Slams, winning three titles and finishing runner-up twice. He is also aiming to become the second man after Djokovic to win three consecutive titles in Melbourne. Sinner has won their last five encounters and leads their head-to-head 6-4. This match could be Djokovic’s toughest test and possibly the stage where his run ends.

Potential Final Opponent — Alcaraz / Medvedev / Zverev

If Djokovic overcomes Sinner, the final opponent most likely to await him is Carlos Alcaraz. The Spaniard is chasing a career Grand Slam, having reached the last three major finals and winning the French Open and US Open titles.

However, Alcaraz has never made it past the quarterfinals at the Australian Open and was eliminated by Djokovic in 2025. Should he exit before the final, last year’s runner-up Zverev or three-time Australian Open finalist Medvedev could take his place on the ultimate stage.

Medvedev has shown clear improvement recently, winning Brisbane early in the new season. In his three Australian Open finals appearances, he was twice overturned after leading by two sets, which might make this another chance for redemption. Still, defeating Djokovic remains a daunting challenge.(Source: Tennis Home, Author: Spark)