In-depth analysis: Why is Djokovic's 25th crown most likely to be the French Open?

In the era of the "Big Three" of men's tennis, Djokovic gradually established the status of "the best of all time" with his extraordinary technical and tactical ability, mental toughness, and obsessive pursuit of historical records. As of 2025, he has won 24 Grand Slam titles, equalling Margaret Court's record and is one step away from being the all-time first. While clay courts are widely regarded as demanding more physical and stamina from veterans, a comprehensive analysis of Djokovic's career trajectory, the current competitive landscape, and the unique historical significance of the French Open suggests that Djokovic's 25th Grand Slam title is most likely to be achieved at the French Open. In this article, we will discuss from multiple dimensions.

Although the French Open title was the last of Djokovic's four Grand Slam titles, Roland Garros was a key stage in his history. This is where he saw his transformation from "Challenger" to "Ruler": the starting point of the first and third laps of the Grand Slam. In 2021, Djokovic defeated Nadal in the semi-finals of the French Open, and then reversed Tsitsipas to win the title, becoming the first player in the Open era to achieve a "double Grand Slam". In 2023, he lifted the Musketeers Cup for the third time, further achieving a "three-lap Grand Slam", an achievement that even Nadal and Federer have not achieved; Second, the stability is beyond imagination. Since 2010, Djokovic has reached at least the quarterfinals of the French Open for 15 consecutive years, a record that surpasses even Nadal, who was unable to extend due to an unexpected exit in 2009. Even at the age of 36 in 2023, he made it to the final with his tenacious perseverance and won the title, showing continued dominance on clay. The particularity of the French Open lies in the fact that it is both the venue of Djokovic's "last conquest" and the stage where he "breaks through history most often", and this contradiction highlights his adaptability and evolutionary potential.

The competitive environment on clay is more favourable for Djokovic than on hard and grass: firstly, the new generation has not yet formed a dominant force. Despite Alcaraz and Sinner's rapid rise on hard and grass, their performances on clay have been inconsistent. For example, Alcaraz was defeated by Djokovic in the semifinals of the 2023 French Open, exposing his inexperienced shortcomings; Sinner, on the other hand, is more adept at fast courts, with a relatively mediocre record on clay. Secondly, the retirement of the king of clay Nadal has given Djokovic more opportunities, Djokovic has been the strongest choice on clay after Nadal, but because Nadal's extremely terrifying dominance at the French Open has overshadowed Djokovic's brilliance, and now Nadal has completely retired, undoubtedly making Djokovic a well-deserved favorite at the French Open. Finally, there is a lack of threat from other opponents, Zverev, Ruud and Tsitsipas, who have reached the French Open final on clay, although they have a certain chance of winning the title, they have some technical or psychological problems, and the experienced Djokovic will definitely try to magnify their weaknesses when facing them, and there is no player in the new generation who can systematically suppress Djokovic like Nadal. In addition, the slow nature of clay courts amplifies Djokovic's tactical wisdom and ability to hold on to the bottom line, while the impatience and lack of experience of young players have become his breakthrough.

Djokovic's prospects are often questioned on the grounds that clay is a drain on fitness, but this argument ignores his unique strengths: efficient playing style, optimized schedule and focus, as well as technology and team security, which allow him to remain extremely competitive in tennis, so fitness is more of a psychological "stereotype" than an actual obstacle. Djokovic proved that experience and wisdom make up for his age.

Djokovic's career has always been linked to historical records, and the French Open is the perfect place for him to achieve a series of goals: he defeated Murray here in 2016 to achieve a career Grand Slam; At Paris 2024, he achieved the Golden Slam at this venue, and this magical venue means a lot to him. The French Open is not only a springboard for records, but also a witness to legends. Djokovic's quest for historical status will drive him to give his all here.

Of course, it remains to be seen whether the next French Open champion will be this year or next year, or the year after. Djokovic has played a terrible clay season in 2025, exiting in the first match of both Masters tournaments and is yet to win a clay clay game in the new season. He withdrew from Rome for well-known reasons, and he opted to play as a wild card in Geneva for the ultimate warm-up for the French Open, so it remains to be seen how Djokovic will be in form.

If Djokovic's 25th crown is achieved at the French Open, it will be a combination of time, place, and people: time - the competitive landscape is in his favor; Geographical advantage - the French Open has witnessed many breakthroughs; Driven by team guarantee and historical mission. While the physical challenge on clay is not negligible, Djokovic has proven with numerous comebacks that he can always turn the impossible into the possible. When Roland Garros' clay rises again, the Serbian king could write the most glorious chapter in tennis history – crowning the undisputed GOAT with a 25th crown, leaving the perfect end to his career.(Source: Tennis Home Author: Xiaodi)